India, Pakistan stick to guns
Shitanshu Shekhar Shukla
The foreign secretaries of Indian and Pakistan met in New Delhi on February 25. Emerging after the talks, they went separate ways to address the media, much the same way as they had walked into meeting separately.
The talks failed to change their paths. They were as far away from each other as they were before. Worse, no body was surprised. Many were relieved that nothing changed. Is Bashir also one of them ?
Indian foreign secretary Nirupama Rao and Pakistan foreign secretary Salman Bashir however appeared happy that they met after all. They agreed to disagree. The analysts struggled to see a silver line.
Bashir told the media that the meeting was neither success nor failure. Because success for India and success for Pakistan have opposite definitions. Success for India would have meant here the Indian concerns on terrorism addressed. While success for Pakistan would have meant issue of Kashmir raised.
Not only that, Nirupama Rao and Bashir differed on how long the contention issue was discussed. Rao claimed that Kashmir issue was raised briefly, Bashir claimed that it was discussed extensively in ‘detail’.
It proved right fear among the Indian Government officials that Pakistan would play hardball and to the gallery. They might as well return back to their countrymen saying we conceded nothing and forced a talk on Kashmir.
Bashir’s belligerence at the press conference so piqued the Indian officials as to quantify later the contents of dialogue. The contents show that eighty percent of the meeting was devoted to discussion terrorism.
They also responded to Bashir in kind, calling his press conference as ‘acrimonious’ and ‘point scoring’. Why did Bashir dismiss Indian dossier on Lashkar chief Hafiz Saeed as literature before withdrawing later?
Indian officials alleged that Bashir had been briefed by Pakistan army chief Kayani and not by head of the democratically elected government Gilani. They however added that they were not surprised to hear Bashir speak a language of hatred.
It explains why India didn’t accept Pakistan’s suggestion for both sides to work towards a timeline of substantial Prime Ministerial meeting during the SAARC summit in Bhutan in April this year.
Nor did they accept Bashir’s call for a composite dialogue.
India appreciated the achievements of the composite dialogue, suspended after the Mumbai attacks. But it pointed out that time was not yet ripe as the main concern now was to restore trust and confidence. Rao described the talks as “detailed, candid and transparent in which both sides gained.”
India submitted three dossiers which Pakistan assured it would seriously examine. One dossier provides information on some individuals associated with the Mumbai attacks, the second was a list of Indian fugitives sheltered in Pakistan and the third on Jamaat-ud-Dawa chief Hafiz Saeed’s anti-India statements. Pakistan touched upon India’s involvement in supplying weapons and money to insurgents in Baluchistan which India said was a “baseless allegation.”
Rao said India went into the talks with an open mind but was fully conscious of the limitations imposed by the trust deficit between the two sides. “Pakistan understood our concerns on terrorism and said tackling this threat is their number one priority,” she said.
Bashir acknowledged that tackling terrorism was Pakistan’s top priority but felt it was necessary to restart the composite dialogue in order to address all the irritants in depth including Kashmir which was the “core issue.”
On terrorism, Pakistan suggested a comprehensive security concept which included intelligence sharing, temperance in the induction of military systems and greater restraint in statements from both sides. With both sides being nuclear powers, Pakistan sought a strategic restraint regime that addressed the issue of nuclear tipped missiles.
However, it may give a push to quiet back-channel engagement between former Pak Foreign Secretary Riaz Mohammed Khan and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s Special Envoy Satinder Lambah. Given the trust deficit and the evidence of India-specific terror groups being still active in Pakistan, back-channel talks could prove useful.
Lambah and Khan are said to have had a meeting and both have been “fully involved” in steps leading to the resumption of Foreign Secretaries-level talks.
India is believed to have given the go-ahead given how productive this process was during the Musharraf regime.
Well after former Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf’s exit, it came to light that the two sides had, indeed, narrowed their gap on an understanding on Kashmir.
That’s why Lambah and Khan provide an important continuum to this renewed effort. Khan is closer to Gilani than Zardari, an indication of the gradual power shift in Islamabad from Zardari to Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani.
Tuesday, March 2, 2010
Monday, February 22, 2010
2010: India tomorrow
2010: India tomorrow
Shitanshu Shekhar Shukla
At stroke of midnight, India clocked whiff of fresh air ‘eclipsing’ lunar cycle. Thus began celebrations of New Year in India. In the end of 2009 lies the beginning of 2010.
Years ago Robert Browning wrote “Sun sets down only to rise again.” Billions of people opened their eyes to a bright sun on first morning of second decade of the 21th century. Leaving behind long and last night of the first decade, new perspectives are beginning to grow on the populace.
India is an old country but a new nation. The civilization is ancient but its expressions are new, shaped in We, the one billion people. Problems are global, solutions are oriental. As a famous US analyst said there has never been a better time to take birth in India than now. The Indian body has a mind the west grudgingly accepts as genius.
(Soul may be oriental, mind is occidental. The world is rewriting history to accommodate India.)
Dark clouds of global recession have an Indian silver line. The first decade of 21th century ended with a Bombay Stock Exchange sensex higher than this day last year. The vehicle of prosperity was driven by Indian auto majors.
Indian equities bid 2009 goodbye on a high with a benchmark index adding over 134 points to its tally. The 30-scrip sensitive index (Sensex) of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), which opened at 17,365.37 points, provisionally closed for 2009 at 17,477.92 points, up 134.1 points or 0.77 percent from its previous close at 17,343.82 points. It had hit a 20-month high around 11 a.m., touching 17,510.88 points.
Around the same time, at the National Stock Exchange (NSE), the broader 50-share S&P CNX Nifty closed at 5,208.75 points, against the previous close at 5,169.45 points, a gain of 0.76 percent.
Broader market indices also managed some gains, with the BSE midcap index ending 0.33 percent up and the BSE small cap index 0.55 percent higher. The market breadth was positive, with 1,667 scrips advancing, 1,219 declining and 79 remaining unchanged.
Even as global auto majors went into reverse gear in 2009, the Indian industry largely bucked the trend, launching new models for the domestic market and registering significant growth in exports.
The year saw the commercial rollout of the world's cheapest car, Tata Nano, as also some expensive models like the Rs.37.5-million (about $750,000) Phantom and the Rs.25-million ($250,000) Ghost (both from Rolls Royce), apart from Volkswagen's famed Beetle, priced at Rs.2 million ($40,000).
During the year, the overall car market grew around 15 percent over 2008, and a similar pattern is expected in 2010, experts maintain.
According to Neeraj Garg, Volkswagen India group sales director: "Car manufacturers are betting on hatchbacks in the B+ segment. We expect the segment to constitute nearly 75 percent of volumes in the coming years."
According to Garg, the B+ segment is expected to grow 30 percent by virtue of new launches from Nissan (unnamed model), Ford (Figo), Volkswagen (Polo), and General Motors (Beat).
Spark, the compact car from General Motors, will now come in an electric version, thanks to a tie-up with Bangalore's Reva Electric Car Co.
"We expect the electric Spark to be launched next November. We will provide the battery kit and use GM's dealer network to distribute our models," said Reva co-founder and deputy chairman Chetan Maini.
Apart from Nano and the high-end Rolls Royce models, 2009 saw a slew of other launches. Japan's Honda launched the Jazz, the homegrown Mahindra and Mahindra unveiled its multi-purpose Xylo, Italy's Fiat drove in its hatchback Grande Punto, and Tata Motors introduced Jaguar and Land Rover, the iconic British brands it acquired last year.
Similarly, Maruti Suzuki debuted its Ritz, South Korea's Hyundai launched the diesel i20, the Czech Republic's Skoda showcased the new Laura while Japan's Toyota rolled out the latest version of sports utility vehicle Land Cruiser.
Ernst and Young has predicted the Indian passenger car market to grow at 12 percent annually over the next five years to touch 3.75 million units by 2014 from 1.89 million units at present.
"The industry's turnover is estimated to touch $155 billion by 2016," said analysts with Ernst and Young, adding this would make the Indian auto industry the seventh largest in the world, and the third largest by 2030, behind China and the US.
The government's Automotive Mission Plan also envisages India emerging as the world's seventh largest carmaker by 2016, contributing over 10 percent to the country's $1.2-trillion economy from under five percent at present.
India is also expected to consolidate its position as an automobile hub, with 2.75 million units to be sold overseas and about a million units in the domestic market.
"India and China are the only markets that have remained profitable," said Pawan Goenka, president of the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM), an industry lobby for the auto sector in India.
With the Indian auto industry growing at 15-25 percent annually for the past five years, spurred by demand from the country's large middle class with growing disposable incomes, some companies in the country like Maruti Suzuki have even outgrown their parents.
The auto industry feels the government's initiatives -- like more funds for roads and highways with special focus on rural infrastructure -- would also go a long way in helping the industry. The two-wheeler industry too logged good growth with motorcycles and gearless scooters leading the way.
While Mahindra and Mahindra debuted with its two-wheeler during the year after it bought the Kinetic group's business, the Pune-based Bajaj Auto announced its decision to exit the scooters business that had become a household name with the "Hamara Bajaj" campaign.
Bajaj also lost a patent case against TVS Motor, which then launched a few models to fill in gaps in product portfolio. "We would like to be present in each segment," said TVS marketing president H.S. Goindi.
Players in the commercial vehicles segment, which was severely hit by the recession, are similarly upbeat.
"With the economy reviving and growth predicted at over 7 percent, commercial vehicle segment can expect good times ahead," said Ashok Leyland chief operating officer Vinod Dasari.
Commercial vehicle manufacturers sold more buses thanks to the funds provided under the Jawaharlal Nehru Urban Renewal Mission (JNURM). But the Hero group exited the commercial vehicle joint venture with Daimler, citing tough market conditions.
Industry insiders maintain that next year will see the entry of Daimler with its light commercial vehicle Fuso Canter. The German company is expected to commission its Indian plant in 2012. General Motors also has a pact with China's Shanghai Automotive Industry Corp to make light commercial vehicles in India by 2011.
This is not to deny that while one arm is long on development, another is short. Gujarat and Bihar are very distant. But we can take comfort that they are no longer bugbears. Gujarat will shed rightist overtone and Bihar is fast becoming normal, politically.
Political commentator Amulya Ganguly says, “The year 2009 saw a major turnaround in the Indian political scene which augurs well for the future. For the first time after a longish period, the divisive elements have taken a back seat. Since these include both the Communists and the rightist forces represented by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the list encompasses those cutting across the political spectrum who thrive on class and communal animosity.”
According to him, “Even the caste-based parties like the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which depend on the support of the backward castes and the Dalits, are losing their edge.”
He adds further, “The catalyst for the change was the middle-of-the-road Congress' success in the general elections, which confirmed that its good showing five years ago was not a flash in the pan. By improving its tally of seats in parliament, the party was able to rid itself of the political encumbrances which had halted the government's progress on several fronts during the last five years.”
The Lok Sabha polls of 2009 have in fact the promises of healthy body politic. The grotesque shape and deformities may be all operated upon into a good shape. Left foot should ideally catch up with right foot, if one has to walk long hours. The Grand Old Party is putting is putting its act together.
According to Political analyst Kalyani Shankar, “the year 2010 should be one of consolidation and growth. The party ended the year 2009 with celebrating its 125th birthday. The mood was a little sombre because of the Telangana mess and Jharkhand fiasco. But the speeches made by the Congress President Sonia Gandhi and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh indicated that the Congress is serious about putting things in order.
She says, “The Congress will complete its organisational elections by March. Sonia Gandhi will be re-elected as the president. She has put on hold many changes in the party in view of the elections but a new team will be in place after March, which may have the stamp of not only Sonia Gandhi but also of her son and AICC General secretary Rahul Gandhi. It is to be seen whether Rahul takes up more responsibility beyond the Youth Congress and the NSUI.”
Speaking of alliances, Kalyani adds, “The other priority for the Congress is to make up its mind about its alliances. The crucial Bihar elections are due in 2010 and the party has to decide whether to repeat its successful U.P experiment or go for alliances with the RJD and LJP or even with JD (U). Rejuvenation of the party in Bihar will enthuse the Congress workers elsewhere as without U.P and Bihar, there can be no Congress revival.”
The left has always been centre to political doctrines in India. For the first time, they have found themselves on margin of the political page however. Amulya Ganguly elaborates in detail, “The most nettlesome of these was the Left. It had not only stymied the much-needed economic reforms, but had even withdrawn support from the government on the India-US nuclear deal. Now, the Left is a pale shadow of its earlier self. The drop in its number of seats in the Lok Sabha has been compounded by its setbacks in assembly by-elections and municipal polls in its stronghold West Bengal. There is now a growing belief in the state that its defeat is inevitable in the assembly elections of 2011. In Kerala too, there are signs that the comrades are losing their influence. This process has been aided by the endless factional tussle between Chief Minister V.S. Achuthanandan and secretary of the Communist Party of India-Marxist's (CPI-M) state unit, Pinarayi Vijayan.”
According to him, ”What the Left's decline indicates, however, is not just the disillusionment of the voters after its rule of three decades in West Bengal and because of the inner-party wrangling in Kerala, but the fading out of an entire ideology. Unlike the 1960s and 70s, when young people were attracted to Marxism and even Marxism-Leninism-Mao Zedong Thought, the influence of the Left is visibly on the wane in the urban centres. What accelerated the disenchantment with the Left was the high-handedness of the West Bengal government in grabbing farm land in Singur for an industrial project and in trying to acquire it in Nandigram with the help of a colonial-era law. The sight of motorcycle-borne armed Marxist militia "invading" Nandigram while the police stayed away convinced the generally Left-inclined intelligentsia in West Bengal and elsewhere that the Buddhadev Bhattacharjee administration was no different in the matter of unleashing goons and emasculating the police than the Narendra Modi government.”
The present year may well write the epitaph, therefore, for the Left movement in India. Although the Communists were always a marginal force with hardly any presence outside West Bengal, Kerala and Tripura, they wielded an influence disproportionate to their actual strength because of their supposedly superior ideology compared to "bourgeois" capitalism and claims to stand for the poor. Now, with the demolition of these myths with Bhattacharjee wooing the private sector, the future of the commissars does not seem all that bright.
Kalyani Shankar agrees to this extent, “The weakened Left parties are getting ready to face the 2011 polls in West Bengal and Kerala. The CPI-M is the worst hit with the onslaught of Trinamool Congress. In Kerala the Chief Minister and the state unit president do not see eye to eye. In West Bengal the party has to decide whether Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharya will lead in 2011. Left unity also needs to be forged as the four left parties are not on the same wavelength on many issues.”
Similarly the Indian politics will never be same with the BJP going through existential crisis.
Amulya Ganguly says, “Like the left, the BJP has problems with its ideology. After two successive defeats in 2004 and 2009, there are misgivings about whether Hindutva is attracting a sufficient number of Hindus. Among those who questioned its efficacy was Jaswant Singh, a newly-elected MP but he was expelled for writing a book on Jinnah and the partition where he blamed the BJP's icon, Vallabbhai Patel, as well as Jawaharlal Nehru for the country's division along with the founder of Pakistan.”
According to him,” Another front-ranking leader of the party, Arun Jaitley, may not have doubted the value of Hindutva, but argued that its propagation as well as the party's general attitude should be less "shrill". Yet, no one has been more shrill in recent months than the paterfamilias of the saffron brotherhood, Mohan Bhagwat of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS). He has been arguing for undoing partition and uniting not only the subcontinent, but also including Afghanistan, Nepal, Bhutan and Sri Lanka in an Akhand Bharat on the basis of Hindu culture.
It goes without saying that these political bombshells, which include a refusal to apologize for the Babri masjid demolition, will plunge the BJP into greater difficulties than it is in at present. As it is, its partners like the Janata Dal-United (JD-U) has advised it to shun fomenting religious sentiments while talking about the Liberhan report on the Babri demolition in parliament and outside. If the RSS chief continues to talk in the present vein, the JD-U may well go the way of the Biju Janata Dal and Trinamool Congress, which left the BJP's company before the general elections.
The change of guard represented by the replacement of Rajnath Singh as the BJP president by the virtually unknown Nitin Gadkari is unlikely to help the party since the latter is seen to be the choice of the RSS. As a result, the party is expected to be even more under the thumb of Mohan Bhagwat than before. It is difficult to see the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) forging ahead under these circumstances.
Given the problems faced by the Left and the BJP, the Congress was fairly comfortably placed till it shot itself in the foot by hastily conceding the demand for Telangana without considering all the pros and cons. Although it is desperately trying to extricate itself by adopting the familiar tactics of delaying taking a decision - as P.N. Narasimha Rao used to do - it is unclear whether this ploy will succeed.”
Indian IT industries not only survived Obama’s rhetoric but also flourished as fast as ever.
Diplomatically, a contentious India-Pakistan joint statement at Sharm-el-Sheikh and a deepening chill in bilateral ties, strains in Sino-Indian relations, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's visit to the US as the first state guest of the Obama White House are some defining diplomatic moments of 2009:
Asia's longest-running insurgency ended with the defeat of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) by Sri Lankan troops in May, triggering loud rejoicing in Colombo and concern in New Delhi about the plight of nearly 300,000 displaced Tamil civilians living in crowded refugee camps.
Sri Lanka promised to resettle the refugees within six months, but as the year ends that deadline looks set to be extended by a couple of months.
Interacting with students, businessmen, talking green and dancing with women activists, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton went on a charm offensive during her five-day visit to India (July 17-20) and announced the first state dinner by the Obama White House in honour of Manmohan Singh Nov 24.
The two sides finalised a crucial end user defence monitoring agreement that allows the US to inspect high-tech weaponry sold to India.
: In times of recession, India, backed by its relatively resilient economy, pitched for the inclusion of emerging economies in international financial institutions at the G20 summits in London in April and Pittsburgh in September, the first summit of BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) in Yekaterinburg in June and again at the G8 summit in La Aquila.
India's economist prime minister's interventions in the global fora signalled the country's surging confidence and global stature.
Marking the first summit contact between the two leaders since the Nov 26, 2008, Mumbai attacks, Manmohan Singh met Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari June 16 in the Russian city of Yekaterinburg. With the cameras zooming and microphones blaring, Manmohan Singh told Zardari bluntly that Pakistani territory can't be used for anti-India terror activities.
In a much-misunderstood move, after holding talks with his Pakistani counterpart Yousaf Raza Gilani July 16 in the Egyptian resort, Manmohan Singh agreed to delink composite dialogue from Pakistan's action against terror and decided to include Balochistan in the Sharm el-Sheikh declaration, the first-such reference in an India-Pakistan joint statement.
There was jubilation in Pakistan at perceived Indian concessions and consternation in India as the political opposition accused the government of surrendering vital national interests. The strong domestic reaction led to a hardening of India's stand and with Pakistan doing little to address its concerns, the chill has deepened.
Under a glowing white tent with a glass ceiling and chandeliers, US President Barack Obama Nov 24 toasted Manmohan Singh on the lawns of the White House at the first glitzy state dinner of his presidency, marking the "great and growing friendship" between India and the US.
The two sides set out an ambitious agenda of "global strategic partnership for a better world" and signed six pacts, including a key counter-terrorism initiative, and agreed to complete their nuclear deal at the earliest, taking ties to what Hillary Clinton has called "Phase III."
India and Russia Dec 7 signed a landmark nuclear deal, widely rated as better than the India-US 123 agreement, assuring fuel supply guarantees in the event of New Delhi conducting a nuclear test and a consent to reprocess spent fuel. The two countries also finalised the price of aircraft carrier Admiral Gorshkov, removing an irritant in their ties.
The dragon hissed, but the elephant did not panic. Fed by media reports of increasing Chinese incursions and an unsigned article by a Chinese analyst warning of a plan to split India into 30-40 states, China-bashing became a sport in Indian media and strategic circles.
China opposed an Indian loan proposal at the Asian Development Bank and protested Tibetan leader Dalai Lama's visit to Arunachal Pradesh, over which Beijing claims sovereignty. But India refused to buckle.
Although both sides tried assiduously to downplay strains in their ties, Manmohan Singh partially admitted it when he told a US think tank in Washington that he had taken note of "certain assertiveness" on the part of China.
More than a year after the July 7, 2008, attack, the Indian embassy was again the target of a suicide bomber Oct 8, 2009. Although no one was killed, the incident once again underlined the hostility India faces from Pakistan-based Taliban militia as it continues the reconstruction of Afghanistan for which it has already pledged $1.2 billion. India has reacted cautiously to Obama's new AfPak policy.
When the global climate deal was on the verge of collapse, India, along with China, Brazil and South Africa, emerged as a link between the developed and developing world and played the saviour in striking a compromise accord at Copenhagen.
In a last-ditch effort, US President Barack Obama held talks with the leaders of the four countries to rescue the tottering deal. Manmohan Singh asked the world not to abandon the Kyoto Protocol and made it clear that the interests of the poor in developing countries can't be sacrificed at the altar of a global warming deal.
Most significantly, the rise in importance of the G20 underscores the critical role played by the key emerging economies such as China, India and Brazil in helping big industrialised states such as the US and Europe counter the fallout from the recession.
When Japan asked India to sign CTBT on last days of 2009, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said, “let US, China sign the CTBT first”. The message was not lost on the Japanese premier.
The two sides signed agreements to build eco-friendly cities along the Rs.3.6 lakh crore ($72 billion) Delhi-Mumbai industrial corridor, setting the tone for talks between Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and his Japanese counterpart Yukio Hatoyama.
India packs power softly. Booker prize winner to Aravind, Nobel Prize to Venkatraman Ramakrishnan in chemistry, Oscar award to Slum Dog Millionaire, Grammy award to tabla maestro Zakir Hussain for the album global drum …the list is endless. A survey by forbes said that Indian immigrants in US are head-and-shoulders above the rest.
Seventy-seven years after playing their first Test, India realised its ultimate dream of becoming the numero uno in Test cricket and in the process celebrated their 100th Test win beating Sri Lanka at home. The feat came in a year when terror hit cricket on the subcontinent. Sachin Tendulkar's brilliance continued to captivate the cricketing world even 20 years after he stepped into the international scene in 1989. He also crossed the milestone of 17,000 ODI runs with a masterful 175 against Australia in Hyderabad, Nov 5, rolling back the years. However, India's performance in ODIs and Twenty20 dipped. Their early exit from the Champions Trophy and Twenty20 World Cup - Mahendra Singh Dhoni's boys were the defending champions - drew a lot of flak.
For the diehard Indian fan though, most rewarding was the tag of World No.1 in Tests. In the last 14 months, India have not lost a single Test and won the series against Australia, England, New Zealand and Sri Lanka. In April, India won a Test series in New Zealand after 41 years.
The stand-out performance came from Gautam Gambhir for the second successive year. Gambhir, who won the International Cricket Council's (ICC) Test player of the year award, started from where he left off, knocking four successive Test centuries, each producing a flavour of its own either to win or save a Test.
If the country is facing any long-term problem apart from Islamic terrorism, it is from the Maoist insurgency, which the prime minister described as the country's gravest internal security threat. However, there are signs that action plans have been prepared by the home ministry to confront the Maoists in their "red corridor" and eradicate the menace with the help of specially-trained and well-equipped paramilitary forces.
If the government succeeds in this endeavour, it will be a major plus factor in its favour. In the economic field too, the situation is improving with a steadily rising growth rate. As if to confirm that the scene is far from depressing, India attained the No.1 status among the Test cricket playing nations in the last month of the year.
Another serious problem is inflating food prices. While the mobiles are cheaper, the food has become dearer. Mobiles can’t be substitute for food. So the government has a serious problem at hand here and unfortunately the government is seen as part of the problem.
Technology in the second decade of this millennium will build on the foundation laid in the first 10 years for mobility, cloud computing and green technology that saw the birth of the iconic iPhone, third generation telephony, notebooks, netbooks and the iPod with a camera.
Finally, India goes 3G. If the auction happens before February as planned, it ends a forgettable episode in Indian telecom, 11 years after 3G's birth. If you ignore the 3G services of state-run firms -- both amazing failures -- then 3G should be on our phones by end-2010. The iPhone, too, will rise with 3G. With under five percent global share, the iPhone accounts for half the world's mobile data traffic.
Only five percent of India's 500 million mobiles are data-enabled smart-phones. That's changing. Of the 10-15 million phones selling each month, a tenth are smart-phones, supporting data and a memory card. Starting 2010, the decade will see an explosion of mobile data applications.
Four-fifth of personal computers in India are desktops, versus two-third globally. That's changing, too. Annual laptop sales are now nearly a third of total personal computer sales. Laptops and now netbooks have the edge in power-starved India. Now, with Rs.15,000-netbooks and power-packed laptops at Rs.30,000, there's little reason to buy desktop computers. While desktops will still log high sales, thanks to large business and government buyers, laptops and netbooks should match their numbers in 2011, saving, by the way, 100 MW of electricity. Up ahead in 2010: the smart-book, a smart-phone-netbook crossover, that will run a full day on a battery charge.
Services delivered over the internet already serve the public at large with Webmail, photo sharing and web services. The cloud is evolving into a simple, pay-per-use way to get services on tap, just like electricity, for businesses. A billion mobile and desktop devices will tap into the cloud. The cloud is also the greenest way to go. Organisations don't need to set up server banks running lots of software. Just pay for what you use. The provider services many users from one set of equipment, halving energy and equipment cost per user.
Environment-friendly features are finally getting into office buildings. House-owners are using power-saving techniques, such as high-albedo reflective paint, which drops rooftop temperature 20 degrees, CFL lamps, and natural light. A ramp-up of solar heating, motion sensors, and LED lights will be seen in 2010. Newer housing projects will be built with green features such as double-glazed glass for natural light, VRF air-conditioning, water harvesting and recycling. The need for saving power will be driven by high cost of backup power, a necessary evil in power-starved India.
The biggest impact on green tech and energy efficiency will come not from electronics and hardware but from smarter software -- software that controls electrical grid, uses sensors data to smartly control building lighting and cooling, improves efficiency of car engines, or runs power management for computer networks. It's software that will really rule 2010's clean tech.
(With Agency Inputs)
Shitanshu Shekhar Shukla
At stroke of midnight, India clocked whiff of fresh air ‘eclipsing’ lunar cycle. Thus began celebrations of New Year in India. In the end of 2009 lies the beginning of 2010.
Years ago Robert Browning wrote “Sun sets down only to rise again.” Billions of people opened their eyes to a bright sun on first morning of second decade of the 21th century. Leaving behind long and last night of the first decade, new perspectives are beginning to grow on the populace.
India is an old country but a new nation. The civilization is ancient but its expressions are new, shaped in We, the one billion people. Problems are global, solutions are oriental. As a famous US analyst said there has never been a better time to take birth in India than now. The Indian body has a mind the west grudgingly accepts as genius.
(Soul may be oriental, mind is occidental. The world is rewriting history to accommodate India.)
Dark clouds of global recession have an Indian silver line. The first decade of 21th century ended with a Bombay Stock Exchange sensex higher than this day last year. The vehicle of prosperity was driven by Indian auto majors.
Indian equities bid 2009 goodbye on a high with a benchmark index adding over 134 points to its tally. The 30-scrip sensitive index (Sensex) of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), which opened at 17,365.37 points, provisionally closed for 2009 at 17,477.92 points, up 134.1 points or 0.77 percent from its previous close at 17,343.82 points. It had hit a 20-month high around 11 a.m., touching 17,510.88 points.
Around the same time, at the National Stock Exchange (NSE), the broader 50-share S&P CNX Nifty closed at 5,208.75 points, against the previous close at 5,169.45 points, a gain of 0.76 percent.
Broader market indices also managed some gains, with the BSE midcap index ending 0.33 percent up and the BSE small cap index 0.55 percent higher. The market breadth was positive, with 1,667 scrips advancing, 1,219 declining and 79 remaining unchanged.
Even as global auto majors went into reverse gear in 2009, the Indian industry largely bucked the trend, launching new models for the domestic market and registering significant growth in exports.
The year saw the commercial rollout of the world's cheapest car, Tata Nano, as also some expensive models like the Rs.37.5-million (about $750,000) Phantom and the Rs.25-million ($250,000) Ghost (both from Rolls Royce), apart from Volkswagen's famed Beetle, priced at Rs.2 million ($40,000).
During the year, the overall car market grew around 15 percent over 2008, and a similar pattern is expected in 2010, experts maintain.
According to Neeraj Garg, Volkswagen India group sales director: "Car manufacturers are betting on hatchbacks in the B+ segment. We expect the segment to constitute nearly 75 percent of volumes in the coming years."
According to Garg, the B+ segment is expected to grow 30 percent by virtue of new launches from Nissan (unnamed model), Ford (Figo), Volkswagen (Polo), and General Motors (Beat).
Spark, the compact car from General Motors, will now come in an electric version, thanks to a tie-up with Bangalore's Reva Electric Car Co.
"We expect the electric Spark to be launched next November. We will provide the battery kit and use GM's dealer network to distribute our models," said Reva co-founder and deputy chairman Chetan Maini.
Apart from Nano and the high-end Rolls Royce models, 2009 saw a slew of other launches. Japan's Honda launched the Jazz, the homegrown Mahindra and Mahindra unveiled its multi-purpose Xylo, Italy's Fiat drove in its hatchback Grande Punto, and Tata Motors introduced Jaguar and Land Rover, the iconic British brands it acquired last year.
Similarly, Maruti Suzuki debuted its Ritz, South Korea's Hyundai launched the diesel i20, the Czech Republic's Skoda showcased the new Laura while Japan's Toyota rolled out the latest version of sports utility vehicle Land Cruiser.
Ernst and Young has predicted the Indian passenger car market to grow at 12 percent annually over the next five years to touch 3.75 million units by 2014 from 1.89 million units at present.
"The industry's turnover is estimated to touch $155 billion by 2016," said analysts with Ernst and Young, adding this would make the Indian auto industry the seventh largest in the world, and the third largest by 2030, behind China and the US.
The government's Automotive Mission Plan also envisages India emerging as the world's seventh largest carmaker by 2016, contributing over 10 percent to the country's $1.2-trillion economy from under five percent at present.
India is also expected to consolidate its position as an automobile hub, with 2.75 million units to be sold overseas and about a million units in the domestic market.
"India and China are the only markets that have remained profitable," said Pawan Goenka, president of the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM), an industry lobby for the auto sector in India.
With the Indian auto industry growing at 15-25 percent annually for the past five years, spurred by demand from the country's large middle class with growing disposable incomes, some companies in the country like Maruti Suzuki have even outgrown their parents.
The auto industry feels the government's initiatives -- like more funds for roads and highways with special focus on rural infrastructure -- would also go a long way in helping the industry. The two-wheeler industry too logged good growth with motorcycles and gearless scooters leading the way.
While Mahindra and Mahindra debuted with its two-wheeler during the year after it bought the Kinetic group's business, the Pune-based Bajaj Auto announced its decision to exit the scooters business that had become a household name with the "Hamara Bajaj" campaign.
Bajaj also lost a patent case against TVS Motor, which then launched a few models to fill in gaps in product portfolio. "We would like to be present in each segment," said TVS marketing president H.S. Goindi.
Players in the commercial vehicles segment, which was severely hit by the recession, are similarly upbeat.
"With the economy reviving and growth predicted at over 7 percent, commercial vehicle segment can expect good times ahead," said Ashok Leyland chief operating officer Vinod Dasari.
Commercial vehicle manufacturers sold more buses thanks to the funds provided under the Jawaharlal Nehru Urban Renewal Mission (JNURM). But the Hero group exited the commercial vehicle joint venture with Daimler, citing tough market conditions.
Industry insiders maintain that next year will see the entry of Daimler with its light commercial vehicle Fuso Canter. The German company is expected to commission its Indian plant in 2012. General Motors also has a pact with China's Shanghai Automotive Industry Corp to make light commercial vehicles in India by 2011.
This is not to deny that while one arm is long on development, another is short. Gujarat and Bihar are very distant. But we can take comfort that they are no longer bugbears. Gujarat will shed rightist overtone and Bihar is fast becoming normal, politically.
Political commentator Amulya Ganguly says, “The year 2009 saw a major turnaround in the Indian political scene which augurs well for the future. For the first time after a longish period, the divisive elements have taken a back seat. Since these include both the Communists and the rightist forces represented by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the list encompasses those cutting across the political spectrum who thrive on class and communal animosity.”
According to him, “Even the caste-based parties like the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which depend on the support of the backward castes and the Dalits, are losing their edge.”
He adds further, “The catalyst for the change was the middle-of-the-road Congress' success in the general elections, which confirmed that its good showing five years ago was not a flash in the pan. By improving its tally of seats in parliament, the party was able to rid itself of the political encumbrances which had halted the government's progress on several fronts during the last five years.”
The Lok Sabha polls of 2009 have in fact the promises of healthy body politic. The grotesque shape and deformities may be all operated upon into a good shape. Left foot should ideally catch up with right foot, if one has to walk long hours. The Grand Old Party is putting is putting its act together.
According to Political analyst Kalyani Shankar, “the year 2010 should be one of consolidation and growth. The party ended the year 2009 with celebrating its 125th birthday. The mood was a little sombre because of the Telangana mess and Jharkhand fiasco. But the speeches made by the Congress President Sonia Gandhi and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh indicated that the Congress is serious about putting things in order.
She says, “The Congress will complete its organisational elections by March. Sonia Gandhi will be re-elected as the president. She has put on hold many changes in the party in view of the elections but a new team will be in place after March, which may have the stamp of not only Sonia Gandhi but also of her son and AICC General secretary Rahul Gandhi. It is to be seen whether Rahul takes up more responsibility beyond the Youth Congress and the NSUI.”
Speaking of alliances, Kalyani adds, “The other priority for the Congress is to make up its mind about its alliances. The crucial Bihar elections are due in 2010 and the party has to decide whether to repeat its successful U.P experiment or go for alliances with the RJD and LJP or even with JD (U). Rejuvenation of the party in Bihar will enthuse the Congress workers elsewhere as without U.P and Bihar, there can be no Congress revival.”
The left has always been centre to political doctrines in India. For the first time, they have found themselves on margin of the political page however. Amulya Ganguly elaborates in detail, “The most nettlesome of these was the Left. It had not only stymied the much-needed economic reforms, but had even withdrawn support from the government on the India-US nuclear deal. Now, the Left is a pale shadow of its earlier self. The drop in its number of seats in the Lok Sabha has been compounded by its setbacks in assembly by-elections and municipal polls in its stronghold West Bengal. There is now a growing belief in the state that its defeat is inevitable in the assembly elections of 2011. In Kerala too, there are signs that the comrades are losing their influence. This process has been aided by the endless factional tussle between Chief Minister V.S. Achuthanandan and secretary of the Communist Party of India-Marxist's (CPI-M) state unit, Pinarayi Vijayan.”
According to him, ”What the Left's decline indicates, however, is not just the disillusionment of the voters after its rule of three decades in West Bengal and because of the inner-party wrangling in Kerala, but the fading out of an entire ideology. Unlike the 1960s and 70s, when young people were attracted to Marxism and even Marxism-Leninism-Mao Zedong Thought, the influence of the Left is visibly on the wane in the urban centres. What accelerated the disenchantment with the Left was the high-handedness of the West Bengal government in grabbing farm land in Singur for an industrial project and in trying to acquire it in Nandigram with the help of a colonial-era law. The sight of motorcycle-borne armed Marxist militia "invading" Nandigram while the police stayed away convinced the generally Left-inclined intelligentsia in West Bengal and elsewhere that the Buddhadev Bhattacharjee administration was no different in the matter of unleashing goons and emasculating the police than the Narendra Modi government.”
The present year may well write the epitaph, therefore, for the Left movement in India. Although the Communists were always a marginal force with hardly any presence outside West Bengal, Kerala and Tripura, they wielded an influence disproportionate to their actual strength because of their supposedly superior ideology compared to "bourgeois" capitalism and claims to stand for the poor. Now, with the demolition of these myths with Bhattacharjee wooing the private sector, the future of the commissars does not seem all that bright.
Kalyani Shankar agrees to this extent, “The weakened Left parties are getting ready to face the 2011 polls in West Bengal and Kerala. The CPI-M is the worst hit with the onslaught of Trinamool Congress. In Kerala the Chief Minister and the state unit president do not see eye to eye. In West Bengal the party has to decide whether Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharya will lead in 2011. Left unity also needs to be forged as the four left parties are not on the same wavelength on many issues.”
Similarly the Indian politics will never be same with the BJP going through existential crisis.
Amulya Ganguly says, “Like the left, the BJP has problems with its ideology. After two successive defeats in 2004 and 2009, there are misgivings about whether Hindutva is attracting a sufficient number of Hindus. Among those who questioned its efficacy was Jaswant Singh, a newly-elected MP but he was expelled for writing a book on Jinnah and the partition where he blamed the BJP's icon, Vallabbhai Patel, as well as Jawaharlal Nehru for the country's division along with the founder of Pakistan.”
According to him,” Another front-ranking leader of the party, Arun Jaitley, may not have doubted the value of Hindutva, but argued that its propagation as well as the party's general attitude should be less "shrill". Yet, no one has been more shrill in recent months than the paterfamilias of the saffron brotherhood, Mohan Bhagwat of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS). He has been arguing for undoing partition and uniting not only the subcontinent, but also including Afghanistan, Nepal, Bhutan and Sri Lanka in an Akhand Bharat on the basis of Hindu culture.
It goes without saying that these political bombshells, which include a refusal to apologize for the Babri masjid demolition, will plunge the BJP into greater difficulties than it is in at present. As it is, its partners like the Janata Dal-United (JD-U) has advised it to shun fomenting religious sentiments while talking about the Liberhan report on the Babri demolition in parliament and outside. If the RSS chief continues to talk in the present vein, the JD-U may well go the way of the Biju Janata Dal and Trinamool Congress, which left the BJP's company before the general elections.
The change of guard represented by the replacement of Rajnath Singh as the BJP president by the virtually unknown Nitin Gadkari is unlikely to help the party since the latter is seen to be the choice of the RSS. As a result, the party is expected to be even more under the thumb of Mohan Bhagwat than before. It is difficult to see the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) forging ahead under these circumstances.
Given the problems faced by the Left and the BJP, the Congress was fairly comfortably placed till it shot itself in the foot by hastily conceding the demand for Telangana without considering all the pros and cons. Although it is desperately trying to extricate itself by adopting the familiar tactics of delaying taking a decision - as P.N. Narasimha Rao used to do - it is unclear whether this ploy will succeed.”
Indian IT industries not only survived Obama’s rhetoric but also flourished as fast as ever.
Diplomatically, a contentious India-Pakistan joint statement at Sharm-el-Sheikh and a deepening chill in bilateral ties, strains in Sino-Indian relations, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's visit to the US as the first state guest of the Obama White House are some defining diplomatic moments of 2009:
Asia's longest-running insurgency ended with the defeat of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) by Sri Lankan troops in May, triggering loud rejoicing in Colombo and concern in New Delhi about the plight of nearly 300,000 displaced Tamil civilians living in crowded refugee camps.
Sri Lanka promised to resettle the refugees within six months, but as the year ends that deadline looks set to be extended by a couple of months.
Interacting with students, businessmen, talking green and dancing with women activists, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton went on a charm offensive during her five-day visit to India (July 17-20) and announced the first state dinner by the Obama White House in honour of Manmohan Singh Nov 24.
The two sides finalised a crucial end user defence monitoring agreement that allows the US to inspect high-tech weaponry sold to India.
: In times of recession, India, backed by its relatively resilient economy, pitched for the inclusion of emerging economies in international financial institutions at the G20 summits in London in April and Pittsburgh in September, the first summit of BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) in Yekaterinburg in June and again at the G8 summit in La Aquila.
India's economist prime minister's interventions in the global fora signalled the country's surging confidence and global stature.
Marking the first summit contact between the two leaders since the Nov 26, 2008, Mumbai attacks, Manmohan Singh met Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari June 16 in the Russian city of Yekaterinburg. With the cameras zooming and microphones blaring, Manmohan Singh told Zardari bluntly that Pakistani territory can't be used for anti-India terror activities.
In a much-misunderstood move, after holding talks with his Pakistani counterpart Yousaf Raza Gilani July 16 in the Egyptian resort, Manmohan Singh agreed to delink composite dialogue from Pakistan's action against terror and decided to include Balochistan in the Sharm el-Sheikh declaration, the first-such reference in an India-Pakistan joint statement.
There was jubilation in Pakistan at perceived Indian concessions and consternation in India as the political opposition accused the government of surrendering vital national interests. The strong domestic reaction led to a hardening of India's stand and with Pakistan doing little to address its concerns, the chill has deepened.
Under a glowing white tent with a glass ceiling and chandeliers, US President Barack Obama Nov 24 toasted Manmohan Singh on the lawns of the White House at the first glitzy state dinner of his presidency, marking the "great and growing friendship" between India and the US.
The two sides set out an ambitious agenda of "global strategic partnership for a better world" and signed six pacts, including a key counter-terrorism initiative, and agreed to complete their nuclear deal at the earliest, taking ties to what Hillary Clinton has called "Phase III."
India and Russia Dec 7 signed a landmark nuclear deal, widely rated as better than the India-US 123 agreement, assuring fuel supply guarantees in the event of New Delhi conducting a nuclear test and a consent to reprocess spent fuel. The two countries also finalised the price of aircraft carrier Admiral Gorshkov, removing an irritant in their ties.
The dragon hissed, but the elephant did not panic. Fed by media reports of increasing Chinese incursions and an unsigned article by a Chinese analyst warning of a plan to split India into 30-40 states, China-bashing became a sport in Indian media and strategic circles.
China opposed an Indian loan proposal at the Asian Development Bank and protested Tibetan leader Dalai Lama's visit to Arunachal Pradesh, over which Beijing claims sovereignty. But India refused to buckle.
Although both sides tried assiduously to downplay strains in their ties, Manmohan Singh partially admitted it when he told a US think tank in Washington that he had taken note of "certain assertiveness" on the part of China.
More than a year after the July 7, 2008, attack, the Indian embassy was again the target of a suicide bomber Oct 8, 2009. Although no one was killed, the incident once again underlined the hostility India faces from Pakistan-based Taliban militia as it continues the reconstruction of Afghanistan for which it has already pledged $1.2 billion. India has reacted cautiously to Obama's new AfPak policy.
When the global climate deal was on the verge of collapse, India, along with China, Brazil and South Africa, emerged as a link between the developed and developing world and played the saviour in striking a compromise accord at Copenhagen.
In a last-ditch effort, US President Barack Obama held talks with the leaders of the four countries to rescue the tottering deal. Manmohan Singh asked the world not to abandon the Kyoto Protocol and made it clear that the interests of the poor in developing countries can't be sacrificed at the altar of a global warming deal.
Most significantly, the rise in importance of the G20 underscores the critical role played by the key emerging economies such as China, India and Brazil in helping big industrialised states such as the US and Europe counter the fallout from the recession.
When Japan asked India to sign CTBT on last days of 2009, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said, “let US, China sign the CTBT first”. The message was not lost on the Japanese premier.
The two sides signed agreements to build eco-friendly cities along the Rs.3.6 lakh crore ($72 billion) Delhi-Mumbai industrial corridor, setting the tone for talks between Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and his Japanese counterpart Yukio Hatoyama.
India packs power softly. Booker prize winner to Aravind, Nobel Prize to Venkatraman Ramakrishnan in chemistry, Oscar award to Slum Dog Millionaire, Grammy award to tabla maestro Zakir Hussain for the album global drum …the list is endless. A survey by forbes said that Indian immigrants in US are head-and-shoulders above the rest.
Seventy-seven years after playing their first Test, India realised its ultimate dream of becoming the numero uno in Test cricket and in the process celebrated their 100th Test win beating Sri Lanka at home. The feat came in a year when terror hit cricket on the subcontinent. Sachin Tendulkar's brilliance continued to captivate the cricketing world even 20 years after he stepped into the international scene in 1989. He also crossed the milestone of 17,000 ODI runs with a masterful 175 against Australia in Hyderabad, Nov 5, rolling back the years. However, India's performance in ODIs and Twenty20 dipped. Their early exit from the Champions Trophy and Twenty20 World Cup - Mahendra Singh Dhoni's boys were the defending champions - drew a lot of flak.
For the diehard Indian fan though, most rewarding was the tag of World No.1 in Tests. In the last 14 months, India have not lost a single Test and won the series against Australia, England, New Zealand and Sri Lanka. In April, India won a Test series in New Zealand after 41 years.
The stand-out performance came from Gautam Gambhir for the second successive year. Gambhir, who won the International Cricket Council's (ICC) Test player of the year award, started from where he left off, knocking four successive Test centuries, each producing a flavour of its own either to win or save a Test.
If the country is facing any long-term problem apart from Islamic terrorism, it is from the Maoist insurgency, which the prime minister described as the country's gravest internal security threat. However, there are signs that action plans have been prepared by the home ministry to confront the Maoists in their "red corridor" and eradicate the menace with the help of specially-trained and well-equipped paramilitary forces.
If the government succeeds in this endeavour, it will be a major plus factor in its favour. In the economic field too, the situation is improving with a steadily rising growth rate. As if to confirm that the scene is far from depressing, India attained the No.1 status among the Test cricket playing nations in the last month of the year.
Another serious problem is inflating food prices. While the mobiles are cheaper, the food has become dearer. Mobiles can’t be substitute for food. So the government has a serious problem at hand here and unfortunately the government is seen as part of the problem.
Technology in the second decade of this millennium will build on the foundation laid in the first 10 years for mobility, cloud computing and green technology that saw the birth of the iconic iPhone, third generation telephony, notebooks, netbooks and the iPod with a camera.
Finally, India goes 3G. If the auction happens before February as planned, it ends a forgettable episode in Indian telecom, 11 years after 3G's birth. If you ignore the 3G services of state-run firms -- both amazing failures -- then 3G should be on our phones by end-2010. The iPhone, too, will rise with 3G. With under five percent global share, the iPhone accounts for half the world's mobile data traffic.
Only five percent of India's 500 million mobiles are data-enabled smart-phones. That's changing. Of the 10-15 million phones selling each month, a tenth are smart-phones, supporting data and a memory card. Starting 2010, the decade will see an explosion of mobile data applications.
Four-fifth of personal computers in India are desktops, versus two-third globally. That's changing, too. Annual laptop sales are now nearly a third of total personal computer sales. Laptops and now netbooks have the edge in power-starved India. Now, with Rs.15,000-netbooks and power-packed laptops at Rs.30,000, there's little reason to buy desktop computers. While desktops will still log high sales, thanks to large business and government buyers, laptops and netbooks should match their numbers in 2011, saving, by the way, 100 MW of electricity. Up ahead in 2010: the smart-book, a smart-phone-netbook crossover, that will run a full day on a battery charge.
Services delivered over the internet already serve the public at large with Webmail, photo sharing and web services. The cloud is evolving into a simple, pay-per-use way to get services on tap, just like electricity, for businesses. A billion mobile and desktop devices will tap into the cloud. The cloud is also the greenest way to go. Organisations don't need to set up server banks running lots of software. Just pay for what you use. The provider services many users from one set of equipment, halving energy and equipment cost per user.
Environment-friendly features are finally getting into office buildings. House-owners are using power-saving techniques, such as high-albedo reflective paint, which drops rooftop temperature 20 degrees, CFL lamps, and natural light. A ramp-up of solar heating, motion sensors, and LED lights will be seen in 2010. Newer housing projects will be built with green features such as double-glazed glass for natural light, VRF air-conditioning, water harvesting and recycling. The need for saving power will be driven by high cost of backup power, a necessary evil in power-starved India.
The biggest impact on green tech and energy efficiency will come not from electronics and hardware but from smarter software -- software that controls electrical grid, uses sensors data to smartly control building lighting and cooling, improves efficiency of car engines, or runs power management for computer networks. It's software that will really rule 2010's clean tech.
(With Agency Inputs)
Jharkhand: Agony of failed hopes
Statehood: Agony of failed hopes
By Shitanshu Shekhar Shukla
The recent assembly election in Jharkhand served the tribals and the indigenous people an opportunity to change their representatives.
Nine years have passed since the state was created out of Bihar. The state has seen four chief ministers and six governments.
But the records of money spent on development betray a ‘Koda’ syndrome. The populace could have taught the politicians a lesson on political accountability.
But the fractured verdict coupled with win of Koda accomplices, sweeping victory of Sibu Soren, spring a surprising non-chalance.
There were many uncomfortable questions, most of which were of politicians’ making.
For example, Jharkhand spent just about 57% of the funds available in 2008-09 under National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (NREGA).
While the likes of Enos and Koda flourished, the state spent barely Rs 500 crore in a year. Rajasthan spends four times as much. If the state lacks capacity to implement development schemes, why has not it been increased since Jharkhand became a state?
Besides, the state continues to lag considerably behind all-India averages in almost all development indicators. Rural poverty in Jharkhand at 46% in 2004-05 is second only to that in Orissa.
The Congress-led government at the centre has been seen to take measures with re¬gard to NREGA, loan waivers for farmers. It paid the party rich electoral dividends in last Parliamentary polls.
But investigation of Madhu Koda and his accomplices for a possible embezzle of public money proves that the Jharkhand politicians don’t think along those lines?
The state is in real mess. The statehood appears to have done the people more harm than good, one wonders.
The chronicle of struggle for statehood merits a closer look to understand the agony of failed hopes.
Jharkhand was born in the early hours of 15 November 2000, birth anniversary of Birsa Munda the leader of Santhali Hul (rebellion). Jharkhand struggle, incrementally evolved from 1756, invests it with a mystique and history unique in character. When the country became independent many believed like Jharkhand leader Jaipal Singh that the SRC (State Reorganisation Commission) would consider the demand more sympathetically. However the principle of a homogenous political identity based on access and control over a comprehensive territorial unit in independent India failed to go further. The commission reasoned that Jharkhand lacked an uniform linguistic identity. Within a couple of decades since SRC’s implementation the country had however began to realise the inevitability of acknowledging the relevance of identities other than language. It was tribal identity in case of Jharkhand, geographical in Uttaranchal, combination of both in Chhattisgarh. Year 2000 saw the cultural differences as a basis for indigenous identity and recognition not only receiving institutional legitimacy but also serving as a strategy for mobilisation using place and territory as integral strategic variables. It might and ought to have catalysed indigenous activities to evolve into a transnational cultural and political movement determined to nurture, protect and expand the right of indigenous people. The statehood had the advantage of keeping the poor tribals in anticipation of its advent as a state with difference, given abundance of natural resources. More so, when the statehood coincided with the UN decade of indigenous peoples. The Samis of Norway earned themselves a parliament.
The populace in Jharkhand had hoped that it won’t be too much for the new political regime to honour their inalienable identification with jal, jamin, jungle to have a system of governance in keeping with the ethos of the tribal culture, emphasis on dignity of the labour.
Patna-centric dispensation was done away to begin with. Honest bureaucrats of Bihar cadre opted for Jharkhand promising for a clear and distinct break from the corruption of past. The problem started ominously with none of the ethnic parties able to reap the political benefit when it was finally created. It was Hindutva swearing BJP which pushed the various Jharkhand parties to the background and became the leader of the National Democratic Alliance in Ranchi. The reason lies in recent character history of Jharkhand movement, marked by a multiplicity of organisations, each claiming to uphold Jharkhand movement, merely complicating the course. The tribal leaders concentrated more on infighting than on mobilising support for the cause. The leaders allowed the electoral politics to influence them. It led to BJP co-opting Jharkhand parties across erstwhile south Bihar.
Within one year of the statehood there was already a sense of disillusionment because the people had before them display of same familiar culture of unscrupulous and unprincipled political behaviour. It became a hotbed of communal politics with the organisations of various tribal groups, SCs, OBCs fighting for enhanced reservation for their respective communities in government jobs and positions in panchayati raj institutions. The demands and the counter demands put before the state government were such that if implemented they would lead to 100% reservation.
AJJM (Adivasi Jharkhand Janadhikar Manch), led by Salkhan Murmu, a BJP MP, demanded 100 % reservation (60% for the tribals in state govt services, educational institutions, assembly and 40% for the original inhabitants). It was the beginning of the ethnic politics, tempered without realism, degenerating into self-deluding ploy. Although the Christian missionaries in the state refused to join hands with AJJM, they had their tacit support. Even the sangh parivar was divided on Murmu’s role. One section was unhappy with his hobnobbing with the missionaries. It believed he was playing a spoilsport at a time when the BJP should have a smooth sailing in the state. Another section believed that Murmu was actually helping the party’s cause co-opting the forces in Santhal pargana, home to many huls (rebellion). Then came the Dumka parliamentary by election (seat vacated by the then Chief Minister Babu Lal Marandi) in mid 2002. And the tribals expressed their disappointment by electing JMM chief Sibu Soren on a negative swing. Marandi got the message and decided to resurrect an old notification putting the tribal and indigenous people in the reserved categories in recruitments to the factories and workshops. It was called a domicile policy. He dropped hints to widen the ambit of notification to the government offices and educational institutions. Jharkhand was on the boil. The society was divided between pro-domicile and anti-domicile groups. The government’s failure to evolve a mechanism to identify the original residents added to the confusion. Marandi even ignored the demands to constitute a commission to expedite the mechanisms for identification. It lent credibility to the impression that Babu Lal Marandi, himself a tribal, stoked the fire and fomented the trouble. Even the tribal members of Marandi ministry ranged themselves against the non-tribal Ministers keeping them away from the decision making on important issues. Only High court’s intervention rejecting the controversial domicile policy put an end to the orgy of violence, terming the policy as “hostile discrimination of the public at large”. 17 March 2003 turned out to be a day of high voltage drama. Arjun Munda replaced Marandi, whose distinctions included arrests of children of 12 under POTA. Curious role of the speaker of the Assembly Inder Singh Namdhari, remains etched in memory for refusing to resign from the office of Speaker before staking claims to Chief Minister.
Babu Lal Marandi has however since had a penchant for raking controversies on amendments to 2 Acts (Santhal Pargana Tenancy Act, Chhotanagpur Tenancy Act) considered so sacred and sacrosanct to the tribals as forced the BJP leadership to eat the words. Besides, last 3 years have seen the rapidly built houses about the municipal areas of Dumka and Deogarh, all on no-transferable raiyati land, changing the landscape. The poor tribals were arm-twisted to write the gift-deeds in favour of a third party claiming to be friends or kin.
The poor have been pushed to wall. The Maoists are enjoying a free run. The government run departments which had once surplus of funds have run out of money. Yet, the state response has been to use police and legal apparatus to smother public voices. Officials too have very short tenures, just about a year each for district collectors and superintendents of police.
The state is simply not functioning, whether for the Ho (Madhu Koda’s community) or other adivasis, particularly in rural Jharkhand. Unless the provision of basic services becomes an issue in deciding votes, the formation of the state of Jharkhand will only mean corrupted polity. The investigation of former Jharkhand chief minister Madhu Koda (and now state officials too) for possible illegally acquiring funds in con¬nection with mining leases, seems to pro¬vide the answer to a question with regard to all the Jharkhand governments so far.
Jharkhand has experienced nothing new but typical of what passes for democracy in the state after state in the country that never tires of boasting of world’s largest democracy.
By Shitanshu Shekhar Shukla
The recent assembly election in Jharkhand served the tribals and the indigenous people an opportunity to change their representatives.
Nine years have passed since the state was created out of Bihar. The state has seen four chief ministers and six governments.
But the records of money spent on development betray a ‘Koda’ syndrome. The populace could have taught the politicians a lesson on political accountability.
But the fractured verdict coupled with win of Koda accomplices, sweeping victory of Sibu Soren, spring a surprising non-chalance.
There were many uncomfortable questions, most of which were of politicians’ making.
For example, Jharkhand spent just about 57% of the funds available in 2008-09 under National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (NREGA).
While the likes of Enos and Koda flourished, the state spent barely Rs 500 crore in a year. Rajasthan spends four times as much. If the state lacks capacity to implement development schemes, why has not it been increased since Jharkhand became a state?
Besides, the state continues to lag considerably behind all-India averages in almost all development indicators. Rural poverty in Jharkhand at 46% in 2004-05 is second only to that in Orissa.
The Congress-led government at the centre has been seen to take measures with re¬gard to NREGA, loan waivers for farmers. It paid the party rich electoral dividends in last Parliamentary polls.
But investigation of Madhu Koda and his accomplices for a possible embezzle of public money proves that the Jharkhand politicians don’t think along those lines?
The state is in real mess. The statehood appears to have done the people more harm than good, one wonders.
The chronicle of struggle for statehood merits a closer look to understand the agony of failed hopes.
Jharkhand was born in the early hours of 15 November 2000, birth anniversary of Birsa Munda the leader of Santhali Hul (rebellion). Jharkhand struggle, incrementally evolved from 1756, invests it with a mystique and history unique in character. When the country became independent many believed like Jharkhand leader Jaipal Singh that the SRC (State Reorganisation Commission) would consider the demand more sympathetically. However the principle of a homogenous political identity based on access and control over a comprehensive territorial unit in independent India failed to go further. The commission reasoned that Jharkhand lacked an uniform linguistic identity. Within a couple of decades since SRC’s implementation the country had however began to realise the inevitability of acknowledging the relevance of identities other than language. It was tribal identity in case of Jharkhand, geographical in Uttaranchal, combination of both in Chhattisgarh. Year 2000 saw the cultural differences as a basis for indigenous identity and recognition not only receiving institutional legitimacy but also serving as a strategy for mobilisation using place and territory as integral strategic variables. It might and ought to have catalysed indigenous activities to evolve into a transnational cultural and political movement determined to nurture, protect and expand the right of indigenous people. The statehood had the advantage of keeping the poor tribals in anticipation of its advent as a state with difference, given abundance of natural resources. More so, when the statehood coincided with the UN decade of indigenous peoples. The Samis of Norway earned themselves a parliament.
The populace in Jharkhand had hoped that it won’t be too much for the new political regime to honour their inalienable identification with jal, jamin, jungle to have a system of governance in keeping with the ethos of the tribal culture, emphasis on dignity of the labour.
Patna-centric dispensation was done away to begin with. Honest bureaucrats of Bihar cadre opted for Jharkhand promising for a clear and distinct break from the corruption of past. The problem started ominously with none of the ethnic parties able to reap the political benefit when it was finally created. It was Hindutva swearing BJP which pushed the various Jharkhand parties to the background and became the leader of the National Democratic Alliance in Ranchi. The reason lies in recent character history of Jharkhand movement, marked by a multiplicity of organisations, each claiming to uphold Jharkhand movement, merely complicating the course. The tribal leaders concentrated more on infighting than on mobilising support for the cause. The leaders allowed the electoral politics to influence them. It led to BJP co-opting Jharkhand parties across erstwhile south Bihar.
Within one year of the statehood there was already a sense of disillusionment because the people had before them display of same familiar culture of unscrupulous and unprincipled political behaviour. It became a hotbed of communal politics with the organisations of various tribal groups, SCs, OBCs fighting for enhanced reservation for their respective communities in government jobs and positions in panchayati raj institutions. The demands and the counter demands put before the state government were such that if implemented they would lead to 100% reservation.
AJJM (Adivasi Jharkhand Janadhikar Manch), led by Salkhan Murmu, a BJP MP, demanded 100 % reservation (60% for the tribals in state govt services, educational institutions, assembly and 40% for the original inhabitants). It was the beginning of the ethnic politics, tempered without realism, degenerating into self-deluding ploy. Although the Christian missionaries in the state refused to join hands with AJJM, they had their tacit support. Even the sangh parivar was divided on Murmu’s role. One section was unhappy with his hobnobbing with the missionaries. It believed he was playing a spoilsport at a time when the BJP should have a smooth sailing in the state. Another section believed that Murmu was actually helping the party’s cause co-opting the forces in Santhal pargana, home to many huls (rebellion). Then came the Dumka parliamentary by election (seat vacated by the then Chief Minister Babu Lal Marandi) in mid 2002. And the tribals expressed their disappointment by electing JMM chief Sibu Soren on a negative swing. Marandi got the message and decided to resurrect an old notification putting the tribal and indigenous people in the reserved categories in recruitments to the factories and workshops. It was called a domicile policy. He dropped hints to widen the ambit of notification to the government offices and educational institutions. Jharkhand was on the boil. The society was divided between pro-domicile and anti-domicile groups. The government’s failure to evolve a mechanism to identify the original residents added to the confusion. Marandi even ignored the demands to constitute a commission to expedite the mechanisms for identification. It lent credibility to the impression that Babu Lal Marandi, himself a tribal, stoked the fire and fomented the trouble. Even the tribal members of Marandi ministry ranged themselves against the non-tribal Ministers keeping them away from the decision making on important issues. Only High court’s intervention rejecting the controversial domicile policy put an end to the orgy of violence, terming the policy as “hostile discrimination of the public at large”. 17 March 2003 turned out to be a day of high voltage drama. Arjun Munda replaced Marandi, whose distinctions included arrests of children of 12 under POTA. Curious role of the speaker of the Assembly Inder Singh Namdhari, remains etched in memory for refusing to resign from the office of Speaker before staking claims to Chief Minister.
Babu Lal Marandi has however since had a penchant for raking controversies on amendments to 2 Acts (Santhal Pargana Tenancy Act, Chhotanagpur Tenancy Act) considered so sacred and sacrosanct to the tribals as forced the BJP leadership to eat the words. Besides, last 3 years have seen the rapidly built houses about the municipal areas of Dumka and Deogarh, all on no-transferable raiyati land, changing the landscape. The poor tribals were arm-twisted to write the gift-deeds in favour of a third party claiming to be friends or kin.
The poor have been pushed to wall. The Maoists are enjoying a free run. The government run departments which had once surplus of funds have run out of money. Yet, the state response has been to use police and legal apparatus to smother public voices. Officials too have very short tenures, just about a year each for district collectors and superintendents of police.
The state is simply not functioning, whether for the Ho (Madhu Koda’s community) or other adivasis, particularly in rural Jharkhand. Unless the provision of basic services becomes an issue in deciding votes, the formation of the state of Jharkhand will only mean corrupted polity. The investigation of former Jharkhand chief minister Madhu Koda (and now state officials too) for possible illegally acquiring funds in con¬nection with mining leases, seems to pro¬vide the answer to a question with regard to all the Jharkhand governments so far.
Jharkhand has experienced nothing new but typical of what passes for democracy in the state after state in the country that never tires of boasting of world’s largest democracy.
Rahul Gandhi: Mission Bihar
RAHUL ON MISSION BIHAR
To the drone of an approaching helicopter, a sea of humanity arises at Bhitharwa ashram in West Champaran district in Bihar on February 1.
A motley group of the old, the young, the adolescent crane their neck out in bewilderment. They are competing to catch the first glimpse of Congress heir apparent flying down in the sun-bleached sky. The 38-year-old heir to Congress dynasty, son, grandson and great-grandson of prime ministers, Rahul Gandhi is coming to them.
Never before has any one from the Nehru-Gandhi family visited the ashram since Mahatma Gandhi launched the Satyagraha movement in 1917 leading to freedom struggle. The local populace is not much better today than their ancestors were when Bapu visited the place to free them from indigo cultivation, forced by British.
Most have inherited only poverty, wearing wrinkles and furrows cutting their faces deep for sweat drops to flow through under the hard glare of sun. It explains the boundless enthusiasm swaying the poor. Can history repeat itself, one wonders?
“Congress workers will fight for the rights of the people without fear and bring about a change in Bihar,” Rahul said at Bettiah, a few kilometers away from the ashram.
According to Bihar Pradesh Congress Committee president Anil Sharma, “It was an unscheduled visit. Rahul decided to visit Bhitharwa at the last moment. He arrived there unannounced and yet, there were almost one lakh villagers when Rahul alighted. Probably they believed their miseries to disappear at his sight”
The decision to start Mission Bihar with tracing Mahatma’s footsteps won curious attention much to the chagrin of the ego-driven politicians.
When asked later about the cause of visit, Rahul said that Mahatma was his idol and inspiration.
The explanation was accepted in right earnest, a marked departure from the dismissive and snide remarks when Rahul had embarked upon Mission Uttar Pradesh during last Lok Sabha polls, or when he had started visiting the Kalawatis in thatched huts. Always fond of shooting off lip, Lalu found his tongue twisted. Caught short of words, he could do little more than murmur his unease.
Chief Minister Nitish Kumar shielded himself under his colleague. People were warned against attempts to mislead. Always calling him poster boy, yuvraaj, novice ducked the query, the BJP feigned ignorance. It is measure of Rahul’s successful political enterprise.
His visits to Darbhanga, Patna campuses, Gaya were closely monitored by the professional politicians zealously guarding their turfs. They have got good reasons to feel threatened. He travelled further to Bhagalpur and Kishanganj to gauge the mood of the Muslim voters in the state.
Wherever he went, people fell head over heels.
BPCC president Anil Sharma says, “Rahul’s visit was private. He was to give a pep talk to the potential candidates for approaching state assembly elections. So we had not announced his visit publicly. Nowhere did we put up any poster, banner. His itinerary was not guarded either. But the kind of response his visit got was too good to believe.”
Reasons behind the frenzy are not far to seek.
The youth find his straight talk, unorthodox political style and in-face attitude assuring. His conscious decision to stay out of a government where every post is his for the asking has added to his appeal among the electorates tired of politicians buying power with a murderous zeal.
Besides, in the past 12 years when the party allowed itself to be dominated by Lalu, Congressmen remained content playing second fiddle. When Rabri Devi was the Chief Minister, nobody from the Congress dared to question Lalu over any of his decisions. The Grand Old Party was ridiculed as Lalu’s B team.
Lalu’s influence over the Congress was so complete that it agreed to contest only four out of the 40 Lok Sabha seats in the 2004 parliamentary elections.
During his visit, Rahul told the state Congressmen that alliance with Lalu was a mistake. The unholy alliance has completed the circle.
This was something that many Congressmen had tried to prevail upon the party high command over the years but in vain. Finally, the Congress woke up to an overconfident Lalu refusing to leave even four seats for the Congress during the Lok Sabha polls last year.
The betrayal turned out to be a blessing in disguise for the Congress in Bihar. Humiliated, it shook off Lalu’s crutches. Inspite of disastrous performance in the last Lok Sabha polls, the decision to go alone gave the party men their confidence back.
The Congress remarkable turnaround in Uttar Pradesh in the last general elections under Rahul’s leadership also filled them with a hope that similar results, if not better, could be possible in Bihar.
He is subject of discussion among the same people as were not ready to look beyond the troika of Lalu Prasad- Nitish Kumar- Ram Vilas Paswan in Bihar politics.
All India Congress Committee member from Bihar, Ashok Ram said, “Rahul’s appeal cuts across caste and creed. His visit has given us a start which we needed for a good finish,”.
Rahul said Bihar was one of the states which had produced the maximum number of IAS officers in India.
“When you are ruling other states, why can’t you rule your own state,” he asked the youths. He added in the same refrain that the state was not progressing because youths were not entering politics.
By focussing on youths, Rahul drove home the point that the youngsters were the pivot of his plan to make a dent into electoral fort held by regional satraps in Bihar.
The Youth Congress has launched a massive month-long membership drive in Bihar since January 12.
Irrespective of results of state assembly polls, Rahul has certainly turned the seemingly bi-polar contest into triangular. Till now, the contest was between RJD-LJP and BJP-JD (U).
Threatened, the political parties have swung into action. The JD (U) is preparing for a Mahadalit rally at Patna on February 21. Ram Vilas Paswan will organise a rally on March 18. The RJD’s Bihar bandh was a part of same exercise.
To the drone of an approaching helicopter, a sea of humanity arises at Bhitharwa ashram in West Champaran district in Bihar on February 1.
A motley group of the old, the young, the adolescent crane their neck out in bewilderment. They are competing to catch the first glimpse of Congress heir apparent flying down in the sun-bleached sky. The 38-year-old heir to Congress dynasty, son, grandson and great-grandson of prime ministers, Rahul Gandhi is coming to them.
Never before has any one from the Nehru-Gandhi family visited the ashram since Mahatma Gandhi launched the Satyagraha movement in 1917 leading to freedom struggle. The local populace is not much better today than their ancestors were when Bapu visited the place to free them from indigo cultivation, forced by British.
Most have inherited only poverty, wearing wrinkles and furrows cutting their faces deep for sweat drops to flow through under the hard glare of sun. It explains the boundless enthusiasm swaying the poor. Can history repeat itself, one wonders?
“Congress workers will fight for the rights of the people without fear and bring about a change in Bihar,” Rahul said at Bettiah, a few kilometers away from the ashram.
According to Bihar Pradesh Congress Committee president Anil Sharma, “It was an unscheduled visit. Rahul decided to visit Bhitharwa at the last moment. He arrived there unannounced and yet, there were almost one lakh villagers when Rahul alighted. Probably they believed their miseries to disappear at his sight”
The decision to start Mission Bihar with tracing Mahatma’s footsteps won curious attention much to the chagrin of the ego-driven politicians.
When asked later about the cause of visit, Rahul said that Mahatma was his idol and inspiration.
The explanation was accepted in right earnest, a marked departure from the dismissive and snide remarks when Rahul had embarked upon Mission Uttar Pradesh during last Lok Sabha polls, or when he had started visiting the Kalawatis in thatched huts. Always fond of shooting off lip, Lalu found his tongue twisted. Caught short of words, he could do little more than murmur his unease.
Chief Minister Nitish Kumar shielded himself under his colleague. People were warned against attempts to mislead. Always calling him poster boy, yuvraaj, novice ducked the query, the BJP feigned ignorance. It is measure of Rahul’s successful political enterprise.
His visits to Darbhanga, Patna campuses, Gaya were closely monitored by the professional politicians zealously guarding their turfs. They have got good reasons to feel threatened. He travelled further to Bhagalpur and Kishanganj to gauge the mood of the Muslim voters in the state.
Wherever he went, people fell head over heels.
BPCC president Anil Sharma says, “Rahul’s visit was private. He was to give a pep talk to the potential candidates for approaching state assembly elections. So we had not announced his visit publicly. Nowhere did we put up any poster, banner. His itinerary was not guarded either. But the kind of response his visit got was too good to believe.”
Reasons behind the frenzy are not far to seek.
The youth find his straight talk, unorthodox political style and in-face attitude assuring. His conscious decision to stay out of a government where every post is his for the asking has added to his appeal among the electorates tired of politicians buying power with a murderous zeal.
Besides, in the past 12 years when the party allowed itself to be dominated by Lalu, Congressmen remained content playing second fiddle. When Rabri Devi was the Chief Minister, nobody from the Congress dared to question Lalu over any of his decisions. The Grand Old Party was ridiculed as Lalu’s B team.
Lalu’s influence over the Congress was so complete that it agreed to contest only four out of the 40 Lok Sabha seats in the 2004 parliamentary elections.
During his visit, Rahul told the state Congressmen that alliance with Lalu was a mistake. The unholy alliance has completed the circle.
This was something that many Congressmen had tried to prevail upon the party high command over the years but in vain. Finally, the Congress woke up to an overconfident Lalu refusing to leave even four seats for the Congress during the Lok Sabha polls last year.
The betrayal turned out to be a blessing in disguise for the Congress in Bihar. Humiliated, it shook off Lalu’s crutches. Inspite of disastrous performance in the last Lok Sabha polls, the decision to go alone gave the party men their confidence back.
The Congress remarkable turnaround in Uttar Pradesh in the last general elections under Rahul’s leadership also filled them with a hope that similar results, if not better, could be possible in Bihar.
He is subject of discussion among the same people as were not ready to look beyond the troika of Lalu Prasad- Nitish Kumar- Ram Vilas Paswan in Bihar politics.
All India Congress Committee member from Bihar, Ashok Ram said, “Rahul’s appeal cuts across caste and creed. His visit has given us a start which we needed for a good finish,”.
Rahul said Bihar was one of the states which had produced the maximum number of IAS officers in India.
“When you are ruling other states, why can’t you rule your own state,” he asked the youths. He added in the same refrain that the state was not progressing because youths were not entering politics.
By focussing on youths, Rahul drove home the point that the youngsters were the pivot of his plan to make a dent into electoral fort held by regional satraps in Bihar.
The Youth Congress has launched a massive month-long membership drive in Bihar since January 12.
Irrespective of results of state assembly polls, Rahul has certainly turned the seemingly bi-polar contest into triangular. Till now, the contest was between RJD-LJP and BJP-JD (U).
Threatened, the political parties have swung into action. The JD (U) is preparing for a Mahadalit rally at Patna on February 21. Ram Vilas Paswan will organise a rally on March 18. The RJD’s Bihar bandh was a part of same exercise.
Talk the Indo-Pak talk
Talk the Indo-Pak talk
Shitanshu Shekhar Shukla
Indian and Pakistan Foreign Secretaries are ‘only’ meeting in New Delhi on February 25, for the first time since suspension of composite dialogue between both the countries in the aftermath of Mumbai terror attack on 26/11.
The initiative to talk was taken by Manmohan Singh surprising even Pakistanis. That it has survived Pune blast in German Bakery demonstrates a purpose. It is significant because the Indian Government has for the first time de-linked terror from talk. New Delhi is believed to be reconciled to spate of terror strikes, with talks or without talks.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh last attempted to de-link talk from terror at Sharm-al-Sheikh last year. It raised such a public outcry in the country that the Congress party came rather close to criticizing him.
Now what are the Indian and Pakistani Foreign secretaries going to speak about when they meet?
Indian Foreign Minister SM Krishna said that composite dialogue stays suspended since Mumbai attack and will remain so till tangible action by Pakistan to dismantle the structure of terrorism. So, the proposed meeting is only about terror, he said.
Pakistan says that it is resumption of composite dialogue, suspended since Mumbai attack. Its strategy is to avoid terror issue by widening the scope of issues. Pakistan foreign office said that their understanding was that the talks were the first step towards resumption of composite dialogue.
Well, they have already started speaking about what they will speak. They won’t wait. They don’t have to sit across a table to lash their tongues.
Any speculation over the subject of discussion appears misplaced.
The Ministry of External Affairs itself cautioned against reading too much into the talks. An official said, “We only wanted to unlock the halt in the process. We will insist on terrorism being the core issue. Mind you, this is only a first step and whether it leads to a process is to be seen,”.
The secretaries will only speak when they meet. They will not even tell, much less listen. After all, both have behind them the mandate of their respective countrymen. Neither is burdened with a successful precedence.
The experts call this ‘theatre of absurd’ a psychological game. Some also question the timing. After all what has so dramatically changed since January 28 as forced the talk offer, they ask?
The foreign ministers of India and Pakistan had met in London on January 28 over the London conference on Afghanistan. Neither had appeared willing to break the ice. Only six days later the Indian Government offered the talks, raising eyebrows.
Former Indian High Commissioner to Pakistan, G Parthasarthy believes that it is ill-timed and has made India look like a supplicant. It has given Pakistan the feeling that we are batting on a sticky wicket. India has lost the agenda to Pakistan,”.
Why is India offering talks then?
Apparently, London Conference on Afghanistan showed India its mirror. That too, in spite of earning enormous goodwill among the Afghanis and the international community by building Afghanistan with Indian currency. Ravaged by Taliban, the schools, the roads, the hospitals etc were rebuilt by India entering lives of local populace.
Pakistan was understandably alarmed over India co-opting the region, they believed as their own. Pakistan maintains links with the predominantly ethnic-Pushtun Taliban in Afghanistan, as a hedge against the day America leaves and a way to thwart a perceived Indian plan of strategic encirclement. Playing on the fears of the international community, Pakistan prevailed upon US, NATO and allies to engage with good Taliban. Since Pakistan served them as a window to Afghanistan, their words carried more credence. India’s stand that there is not such thing as good Taliban and bad Taliban was overlooked, however true it was. Upset with US for not supporting him in his controversial presidential win, Karzai also wants a deal with Taliban. India stood marginalized on Afghanistan and therefore did a quick sum of its losses and gains.
It reckoned that it would be better to agree to disagree across the table rather than disagree to agree, sitting at respective homes. Talking may not go further than words, they realized but not talking is proving to be worse.
Benjamin Franklin had long said, “There never was a good war and there never was a bad peace.”
Second factor was that India is more confident than ever before about Kashmir problem. The troubled state has an elected government backed by a popular appeal against Pakistan.
Thirdly, with a civilian government in place in Pakistan, India has lost an excuse over whom to talk as it did earlier when Manmohan Singh said after ignominious exit of Pervez Musharraf, “we don’t know who we should be talking to in Pakistan,”.
Fourthly, suspension of composite talks in aftermath of Mumbai terror attack has paid as much dividend as it could. There is no need to hang fire any longer. In any case the talk on Feb 25 will not be composite.
Fifthly, the steady degradation of Taliban capabilities. Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar is the most significant Taliban terrorist to be captured since US entered Afghanistan after 09/11. He is Mullah Omar’s second in command. Second capture is of Mullah Abdul Salam by Pakistani forces and ISI, backed by CIA. He is a shadow governor of Afghanistan’s Kunduz province. Pakistan distinguished between Pakistan Taliban and Afghan Taliban. Pakistani leadership sees in former a direct threat and in latter a strategic asset against India. However the twin arrests hint a change in Pakistani leadership’s thinking. Pakistan Army chief Parvez Kayani doesn’t appear to be favouring Afghani Taliban any longer, a good news for India.
No wonder, SM Krishna has suddenly made a virtue of discussion. He is reported to have said “We have been advising others including those involved in Palestine that outstanding issues must be addressed through dialogue. How can we prescribe a different medicine for ourselves?”
India-Pakistan negotiations are going to be a high wire act. Genuine realism will call for some political risks, which the political establishments on both sides can ill afford to ignore.
However, this may prove too much to expect. India fears Pakistan leadership can play very hardball and to the gallery. If they go to Pakistani people saying they forced talk about Kashmir and conceded nothing, Indian MEA officials said the talk will run aground for longer than feared.
Shitanshu Shekhar Shukla
Indian and Pakistan Foreign Secretaries are ‘only’ meeting in New Delhi on February 25, for the first time since suspension of composite dialogue between both the countries in the aftermath of Mumbai terror attack on 26/11.
The initiative to talk was taken by Manmohan Singh surprising even Pakistanis. That it has survived Pune blast in German Bakery demonstrates a purpose. It is significant because the Indian Government has for the first time de-linked terror from talk. New Delhi is believed to be reconciled to spate of terror strikes, with talks or without talks.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh last attempted to de-link talk from terror at Sharm-al-Sheikh last year. It raised such a public outcry in the country that the Congress party came rather close to criticizing him.
Now what are the Indian and Pakistani Foreign secretaries going to speak about when they meet?
Indian Foreign Minister SM Krishna said that composite dialogue stays suspended since Mumbai attack and will remain so till tangible action by Pakistan to dismantle the structure of terrorism. So, the proposed meeting is only about terror, he said.
Pakistan says that it is resumption of composite dialogue, suspended since Mumbai attack. Its strategy is to avoid terror issue by widening the scope of issues. Pakistan foreign office said that their understanding was that the talks were the first step towards resumption of composite dialogue.
Well, they have already started speaking about what they will speak. They won’t wait. They don’t have to sit across a table to lash their tongues.
Any speculation over the subject of discussion appears misplaced.
The Ministry of External Affairs itself cautioned against reading too much into the talks. An official said, “We only wanted to unlock the halt in the process. We will insist on terrorism being the core issue. Mind you, this is only a first step and whether it leads to a process is to be seen,”.
The secretaries will only speak when they meet. They will not even tell, much less listen. After all, both have behind them the mandate of their respective countrymen. Neither is burdened with a successful precedence.
The experts call this ‘theatre of absurd’ a psychological game. Some also question the timing. After all what has so dramatically changed since January 28 as forced the talk offer, they ask?
The foreign ministers of India and Pakistan had met in London on January 28 over the London conference on Afghanistan. Neither had appeared willing to break the ice. Only six days later the Indian Government offered the talks, raising eyebrows.
Former Indian High Commissioner to Pakistan, G Parthasarthy believes that it is ill-timed and has made India look like a supplicant. It has given Pakistan the feeling that we are batting on a sticky wicket. India has lost the agenda to Pakistan,”.
Why is India offering talks then?
Apparently, London Conference on Afghanistan showed India its mirror. That too, in spite of earning enormous goodwill among the Afghanis and the international community by building Afghanistan with Indian currency. Ravaged by Taliban, the schools, the roads, the hospitals etc were rebuilt by India entering lives of local populace.
Pakistan was understandably alarmed over India co-opting the region, they believed as their own. Pakistan maintains links with the predominantly ethnic-Pushtun Taliban in Afghanistan, as a hedge against the day America leaves and a way to thwart a perceived Indian plan of strategic encirclement. Playing on the fears of the international community, Pakistan prevailed upon US, NATO and allies to engage with good Taliban. Since Pakistan served them as a window to Afghanistan, their words carried more credence. India’s stand that there is not such thing as good Taliban and bad Taliban was overlooked, however true it was. Upset with US for not supporting him in his controversial presidential win, Karzai also wants a deal with Taliban. India stood marginalized on Afghanistan and therefore did a quick sum of its losses and gains.
It reckoned that it would be better to agree to disagree across the table rather than disagree to agree, sitting at respective homes. Talking may not go further than words, they realized but not talking is proving to be worse.
Benjamin Franklin had long said, “There never was a good war and there never was a bad peace.”
Second factor was that India is more confident than ever before about Kashmir problem. The troubled state has an elected government backed by a popular appeal against Pakistan.
Thirdly, with a civilian government in place in Pakistan, India has lost an excuse over whom to talk as it did earlier when Manmohan Singh said after ignominious exit of Pervez Musharraf, “we don’t know who we should be talking to in Pakistan,”.
Fourthly, suspension of composite talks in aftermath of Mumbai terror attack has paid as much dividend as it could. There is no need to hang fire any longer. In any case the talk on Feb 25 will not be composite.
Fifthly, the steady degradation of Taliban capabilities. Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar is the most significant Taliban terrorist to be captured since US entered Afghanistan after 09/11. He is Mullah Omar’s second in command. Second capture is of Mullah Abdul Salam by Pakistani forces and ISI, backed by CIA. He is a shadow governor of Afghanistan’s Kunduz province. Pakistan distinguished between Pakistan Taliban and Afghan Taliban. Pakistani leadership sees in former a direct threat and in latter a strategic asset against India. However the twin arrests hint a change in Pakistani leadership’s thinking. Pakistan Army chief Parvez Kayani doesn’t appear to be favouring Afghani Taliban any longer, a good news for India.
No wonder, SM Krishna has suddenly made a virtue of discussion. He is reported to have said “We have been advising others including those involved in Palestine that outstanding issues must be addressed through dialogue. How can we prescribe a different medicine for ourselves?”
India-Pakistan negotiations are going to be a high wire act. Genuine realism will call for some political risks, which the political establishments on both sides can ill afford to ignore.
However, this may prove too much to expect. India fears Pakistan leadership can play very hardball and to the gallery. If they go to Pakistani people saying they forced talk about Kashmir and conceded nothing, Indian MEA officials said the talk will run aground for longer than feared.
With Gadkari, BJP sees reason
With Gadkari, BJP sees reason
Shitanshu Shekhar Shukla
New Bharatiya Janata Party president Nitin Gadkari appears to be different from his predecessors in more ways than one. The recently concluded session of three-day National Executive meet of the party at Indore in Madhya Pradesh heard him sing a different tune, literally. As if on the cue, many followed with Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan showing an ear for music.
Hand picked by RSS Chief Mohan Bhagwat for the top party post, he was expected to hymn the chants of Ram and couplets from religious books to bring back into focus the ‘ideology’. More so, when many party stalwarts had diagnosed the dilution of ideology as main cause for electoral reverses.
In stead, he talked more about performance, governance. The man from Maharashtra, who was written off because of being new to Delhi, appeared keen to carve out his own groove.
2009 Lok Sabha election results taught the party a lesson on politics of inclusion. The 2009 Lok Sabha election, much re¬moved from the tumultuous con¬troversies, drew people’s at¬tention to issues of performance of the government and the delivery end of politics.
In 2009, the Congress may just have forged – very tentatively – a coalition of the middle classes and the poor. A slight shift away from the middle classes brought the party to the middle road once again. The results are there to see – a recovery of the Congress.
But more than the recovery of the Congress, the tentative coalition of the middle classes and the poor could arrest the onward march of various politics of exclusion and bring the poor back into the policy consciousness of our polity – to the extent this is possible within a liberal democratic framework
So, the Narendra Modi government in Gujarat managed to gain not by the Modi of 2002-03, but by the overall record of the state government; the Y S Rajasekhara Reddy government returned to power in Andhra Pradesh on claims of having cared for the poor; Nitish Kumar in Bihar surpassed all expectations on grounds of stalling the downfall of governance that took place during the Lalu-Rabri Devi regime; the Left Front fared badly in both Kerala and West Ben¬gal because it lost the script of being a government that cared.
He admitted it as much saying, “We lost the Lok Sabha polls. Congress got more votes than us. If we have to win, we have work more, just as when we fail in exams, we have to study more to pass the next time. We need to have SCs, STs, minorities, hawkers and unorganised labourers on our side,".
The buzzwords in his 24-page inaugural address were “antyodaya” (welfare of the poorest), “samajik samrasta” (social equality) and “vikas” (development) with social justice.
In Indore, Gadkari treaded a new path, in a sharp departure from the hard Hindutva line propounded by L.K. Advani through the party’s Palampur resolution on a Ram temple in 1989 and taken forward successively by several party presidents. He addressed the concerns of the poorest sections of society.
Politically, it indicated his readiness to fight the Congress on what it may consider its home turf — struggle for the poor and the downtrodden and take the country’s development forward.
Instead of harping on conspiracy theories floated by LK Adavni blaming the faulty EVMs, Gadkari said the fact was that the party was outpolled by Congress and it needed to embrace more sections to catch up with the rival.
Besides, although he mentioned the pet project of the party, Ram temple issue, at the end of his hour-long address, the way he did it spoke volumes about changing priorities. He said that he was mentioning Ayodhya Ram Temple issue “otherwise the media will write that he has skipped the issue.”
Even here he adopted an inclusive agenda, contrary to the BJP’s routine confrontationist approach that come what may, a Ram temple will be built at the disputed spot. He appealed to the Muslim community to be generous towards the sentiments and feelings of Hindus and facilitate the construction of a grand Ram temple since it was "hamari aatma". He went to the extent of saying that the party had no problem if a mosque came up nearby
Besides, his long talk on terrorism, Pakistan and Kashmir missed even a passing reference to abrogation of Article 370 conferring a special status on Kashmir. The issue has continued to be central to the party cultural nationalism. However, Gadkari moved on and elaborated later in the resolution on security issues that talks with Pakistan and terror attacks from its soil can’t co-exist.
He called upon his party men to go to the villages, highlighted plans to end farmers’ suicides, and finally indicated that the BJP could grow if it could attract 10 per cent of the poorest and most downtrodden sections of society, including Dalits.
Gadkari didn’t appear to spare any one, speaking like a man possessed. He hit every sparring colleague, irrespective of position. Gadkari warned them against encouraging workers to touch their feet or do anything that lowers their dignity, while asking workers not to waste their time waiting on “leaders.”
He gave his own example to drive home the point. He never had the habit of coming to Delhi and meeting party leaders unless he was doing so with some specific work in mind and yet “I became the president of the party”, he said.
None of this is even remotely a routine political noise. He went even further, calling upon the party to work for the poorest, without looking at this as a vote-bank issue. The BJP should always be on the side of development and would not oppose good government policies simply for the sake of opposing.
He ended his address with reference to a story of a sparrow trying to fight a fire with a few drops of water in its beak.
“The sparrow may not be able to put out the fire, but at least it will be counted among those that tried to douse it,” he said.
The message, it seems, was for all party men to try and douse the fire of internal bickering that was hurting the party.
For example, he lent support to Shah Rukh Khan and opposed Shiv Sena on its campaign against north Indians. (With Agency Inputs)
Shitanshu Shekhar Shukla
New Bharatiya Janata Party president Nitin Gadkari appears to be different from his predecessors in more ways than one. The recently concluded session of three-day National Executive meet of the party at Indore in Madhya Pradesh heard him sing a different tune, literally. As if on the cue, many followed with Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan showing an ear for music.
Hand picked by RSS Chief Mohan Bhagwat for the top party post, he was expected to hymn the chants of Ram and couplets from religious books to bring back into focus the ‘ideology’. More so, when many party stalwarts had diagnosed the dilution of ideology as main cause for electoral reverses.
In stead, he talked more about performance, governance. The man from Maharashtra, who was written off because of being new to Delhi, appeared keen to carve out his own groove.
2009 Lok Sabha election results taught the party a lesson on politics of inclusion. The 2009 Lok Sabha election, much re¬moved from the tumultuous con¬troversies, drew people’s at¬tention to issues of performance of the government and the delivery end of politics.
In 2009, the Congress may just have forged – very tentatively – a coalition of the middle classes and the poor. A slight shift away from the middle classes brought the party to the middle road once again. The results are there to see – a recovery of the Congress.
But more than the recovery of the Congress, the tentative coalition of the middle classes and the poor could arrest the onward march of various politics of exclusion and bring the poor back into the policy consciousness of our polity – to the extent this is possible within a liberal democratic framework
So, the Narendra Modi government in Gujarat managed to gain not by the Modi of 2002-03, but by the overall record of the state government; the Y S Rajasekhara Reddy government returned to power in Andhra Pradesh on claims of having cared for the poor; Nitish Kumar in Bihar surpassed all expectations on grounds of stalling the downfall of governance that took place during the Lalu-Rabri Devi regime; the Left Front fared badly in both Kerala and West Ben¬gal because it lost the script of being a government that cared.
He admitted it as much saying, “We lost the Lok Sabha polls. Congress got more votes than us. If we have to win, we have work more, just as when we fail in exams, we have to study more to pass the next time. We need to have SCs, STs, minorities, hawkers and unorganised labourers on our side,".
The buzzwords in his 24-page inaugural address were “antyodaya” (welfare of the poorest), “samajik samrasta” (social equality) and “vikas” (development) with social justice.
In Indore, Gadkari treaded a new path, in a sharp departure from the hard Hindutva line propounded by L.K. Advani through the party’s Palampur resolution on a Ram temple in 1989 and taken forward successively by several party presidents. He addressed the concerns of the poorest sections of society.
Politically, it indicated his readiness to fight the Congress on what it may consider its home turf — struggle for the poor and the downtrodden and take the country’s development forward.
Instead of harping on conspiracy theories floated by LK Adavni blaming the faulty EVMs, Gadkari said the fact was that the party was outpolled by Congress and it needed to embrace more sections to catch up with the rival.
Besides, although he mentioned the pet project of the party, Ram temple issue, at the end of his hour-long address, the way he did it spoke volumes about changing priorities. He said that he was mentioning Ayodhya Ram Temple issue “otherwise the media will write that he has skipped the issue.”
Even here he adopted an inclusive agenda, contrary to the BJP’s routine confrontationist approach that come what may, a Ram temple will be built at the disputed spot. He appealed to the Muslim community to be generous towards the sentiments and feelings of Hindus and facilitate the construction of a grand Ram temple since it was "hamari aatma". He went to the extent of saying that the party had no problem if a mosque came up nearby
Besides, his long talk on terrorism, Pakistan and Kashmir missed even a passing reference to abrogation of Article 370 conferring a special status on Kashmir. The issue has continued to be central to the party cultural nationalism. However, Gadkari moved on and elaborated later in the resolution on security issues that talks with Pakistan and terror attacks from its soil can’t co-exist.
He called upon his party men to go to the villages, highlighted plans to end farmers’ suicides, and finally indicated that the BJP could grow if it could attract 10 per cent of the poorest and most downtrodden sections of society, including Dalits.
Gadkari didn’t appear to spare any one, speaking like a man possessed. He hit every sparring colleague, irrespective of position. Gadkari warned them against encouraging workers to touch their feet or do anything that lowers their dignity, while asking workers not to waste their time waiting on “leaders.”
He gave his own example to drive home the point. He never had the habit of coming to Delhi and meeting party leaders unless he was doing so with some specific work in mind and yet “I became the president of the party”, he said.
None of this is even remotely a routine political noise. He went even further, calling upon the party to work for the poorest, without looking at this as a vote-bank issue. The BJP should always be on the side of development and would not oppose good government policies simply for the sake of opposing.
He ended his address with reference to a story of a sparrow trying to fight a fire with a few drops of water in its beak.
“The sparrow may not be able to put out the fire, but at least it will be counted among those that tried to douse it,” he said.
The message, it seems, was for all party men to try and douse the fire of internal bickering that was hurting the party.
For example, he lent support to Shah Rukh Khan and opposed Shiv Sena on its campaign against north Indians. (With Agency Inputs)
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