2010: India tomorrow

2010: India tomorrow

Shitanshu Shekhar Shukla

At stroke of midnight, India clocked whiff of fresh air ‘eclipsing’ lunar cycle. Thus began celebrations of New Year in India. In the end of 2009 lies the beginning of 2010.

Years ago Robert Browning wrote “Sun sets down only to rise again.” Billions of people opened their eyes to a bright sun on first morning of second decade of the 21th century. Leaving behind long and last night of the first decade, new perspectives are beginning to grow on the populace.

India is an old country but a new nation. The civilization is ancient but its expressions are new, shaped in We, the one billion people. Problems are global, solutions are oriental. As a famous US analyst said there has never been a better time to take birth in India than now. The Indian body has a mind the west grudgingly accepts as genius.
(Soul may be oriental, mind is occidental. The world is rewriting history to accommodate India.)

Dark clouds of global recession have an Indian silver line. The first decade of 21th century ended with a Bombay Stock Exchange sensex higher than this day last year. The vehicle of prosperity was driven by Indian auto majors.
Indian equities bid 2009 goodbye on a high with a benchmark index adding over 134 points to its tally. The 30-scrip sensitive index (Sensex) of the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), which opened at 17,365.37 points, provisionally closed for 2009 at 17,477.92 points, up 134.1 points or 0.77 percent from its previous close at 17,343.82 points. It had hit a 20-month high around 11 a.m., touching 17,510.88 points.

Around the same time, at the National Stock Exchange (NSE), the broader 50-share S&P CNX Nifty closed at 5,208.75 points, against the previous close at 5,169.45 points, a gain of 0.76 percent.

Broader market indices also managed some gains, with the BSE midcap index ending 0.33 percent up and the BSE small cap index 0.55 percent higher. The market breadth was positive, with 1,667 scrips advancing, 1,219 declining and 79 remaining unchanged.
Even as global auto majors went into reverse gear in 2009, the Indian industry largely bucked the trend, launching new models for the domestic market and registering significant growth in exports.
The year saw the commercial rollout of the world's cheapest car, Tata Nano, as also some expensive models like the Rs.37.5-million (about $750,000) Phantom and the Rs.25-million ($250,000) Ghost (both from Rolls Royce), apart from Volkswagen's famed Beetle, priced at Rs.2 million ($40,000).

During the year, the overall car market grew around 15 percent over 2008, and a similar pattern is expected in 2010, experts maintain.

According to Neeraj Garg, Volkswagen India group sales director: "Car manufacturers are betting on hatchbacks in the B+ segment. We expect the segment to constitute nearly 75 percent of volumes in the coming years."

According to Garg, the B+ segment is expected to grow 30 percent by virtue of new launches from Nissan (unnamed model), Ford (Figo), Volkswagen (Polo), and General Motors (Beat).

Spark, the compact car from General Motors, will now come in an electric version, thanks to a tie-up with Bangalore's Reva Electric Car Co.

"We expect the electric Spark to be launched next November. We will provide the battery kit and use GM's dealer network to distribute our models," said Reva co-founder and deputy chairman Chetan Maini.

Apart from Nano and the high-end Rolls Royce models, 2009 saw a slew of other launches. Japan's Honda launched the Jazz, the homegrown Mahindra and Mahindra unveiled its multi-purpose Xylo, Italy's Fiat drove in its hatchback Grande Punto, and Tata Motors introduced Jaguar and Land Rover, the iconic British brands it acquired last year.

Similarly, Maruti Suzuki debuted its Ritz, South Korea's Hyundai launched the diesel i20, the Czech Republic's Skoda showcased the new Laura while Japan's Toyota rolled out the latest version of sports utility vehicle Land Cruiser.

Ernst and Young has predicted the Indian passenger car market to grow at 12 percent annually over the next five years to touch 3.75 million units by 2014 from 1.89 million units at present.

"The industry's turnover is estimated to touch $155 billion by 2016," said analysts with Ernst and Young, adding this would make the Indian auto industry the seventh largest in the world, and the third largest by 2030, behind China and the US.

The government's Automotive Mission Plan also envisages India emerging as the world's seventh largest carmaker by 2016, contributing over 10 percent to the country's $1.2-trillion economy from under five percent at present.

India is also expected to consolidate its position as an automobile hub, with 2.75 million units to be sold overseas and about a million units in the domestic market.

"India and China are the only markets that have remained profitable," said Pawan Goenka, president of the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM), an industry lobby for the auto sector in India.

With the Indian auto industry growing at 15-25 percent annually for the past five years, spurred by demand from the country's large middle class with growing disposable incomes, some companies in the country like Maruti Suzuki have even outgrown their parents.

The auto industry feels the government's initiatives -- like more funds for roads and highways with special focus on rural infrastructure -- would also go a long way in helping the industry. The two-wheeler industry too logged good growth with motorcycles and gearless scooters leading the way.

While Mahindra and Mahindra debuted with its two-wheeler during the year after it bought the Kinetic group's business, the Pune-based Bajaj Auto announced its decision to exit the scooters business that had become a household name with the "Hamara Bajaj" campaign.

Bajaj also lost a patent case against TVS Motor, which then launched a few models to fill in gaps in product portfolio. "We would like to be present in each segment," said TVS marketing president H.S. Goindi.

Players in the commercial vehicles segment, which was severely hit by the recession, are similarly upbeat.

"With the economy reviving and growth predicted at over 7 percent, commercial vehicle segment can expect good times ahead," said Ashok Leyland chief operating officer Vinod Dasari.

Commercial vehicle manufacturers sold more buses thanks to the funds provided under the Jawaharlal Nehru Urban Renewal Mission (JNURM). But the Hero group exited the commercial vehicle joint venture with Daimler, citing tough market conditions.

Industry insiders maintain that next year will see the entry of Daimler with its light commercial vehicle Fuso Canter. The German company is expected to commission its Indian plant in 2012. General Motors also has a pact with China's Shanghai Automotive Industry Corp to make light commercial vehicles in India by 2011.

This is not to deny that while one arm is long on development, another is short. Gujarat and Bihar are very distant. But we can take comfort that they are no longer bugbears. Gujarat will shed rightist overtone and Bihar is fast becoming normal, politically.

Political commentator Amulya Ganguly says, “The year 2009 saw a major turnaround in the Indian political scene which augurs well for the future. For the first time after a longish period, the divisive elements have taken a back seat. Since these include both the Communists and the rightist forces represented by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the list encompasses those cutting across the political spectrum who thrive on class and communal animosity.”

According to him, “Even the caste-based parties like the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which depend on the support of the backward castes and the Dalits, are losing their edge.”

He adds further, “The catalyst for the change was the middle-of-the-road Congress' success in the general elections, which confirmed that its good showing five years ago was not a flash in the pan. By improving its tally of seats in parliament, the party was able to rid itself of the political encumbrances which had halted the government's progress on several fronts during the last five years.”

The Lok Sabha polls of 2009 have in fact the promises of healthy body politic. The grotesque shape and deformities may be all operated upon into a good shape. Left foot should ideally catch up with right foot, if one has to walk long hours. The Grand Old Party is putting is putting its act together.
According to Political analyst Kalyani Shankar, “the year 2010 should be one of consolidation and growth. The party ended the year 2009 with celebrating its 125th birthday. The mood was a little sombre because of the Telangana mess and Jharkhand fiasco. But the speeches made by the Congress President Sonia Gandhi and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh indicated that the Congress is serious about putting things in order.
She says, “The Congress will complete its organisational elections by March. Sonia Gandhi will be re-elected as the president. She has put on hold many changes in the party in view of the elections but a new team will be in place after March, which may have the stamp of not only Sonia Gandhi but also of her son and AICC General secretary Rahul Gandhi. It is to be seen whether Rahul takes up more responsibility beyond the Youth Congress and the NSUI.”
Speaking of alliances, Kalyani adds, “The other priority for the Congress is to make up its mind about its alliances. The crucial Bihar elections are due in 2010 and the party has to decide whether to repeat its successful U.P experiment or go for alliances with the RJD and LJP or even with JD (U). Rejuvenation of the party in Bihar will enthuse the Congress workers elsewhere as without U.P and Bihar, there can be no Congress revival.”
The left has always been centre to political doctrines in India. For the first time, they have found themselves on margin of the political page however. Amulya Ganguly elaborates in detail, “The most nettlesome of these was the Left. It had not only stymied the much-needed economic reforms, but had even withdrawn support from the government on the India-US nuclear deal. Now, the Left is a pale shadow of its earlier self. The drop in its number of seats in the Lok Sabha has been compounded by its setbacks in assembly by-elections and municipal polls in its stronghold West Bengal. There is now a growing belief in the state that its defeat is inevitable in the assembly elections of 2011. In Kerala too, there are signs that the comrades are losing their influence. This process has been aided by the endless factional tussle between Chief Minister V.S. Achuthanandan and secretary of the Communist Party of India-Marxist's (CPI-M) state unit, Pinarayi Vijayan.”

According to him, ”What the Left's decline indicates, however, is not just the disillusionment of the voters after its rule of three decades in West Bengal and because of the inner-party wrangling in Kerala, but the fading out of an entire ideology. Unlike the 1960s and 70s, when young people were attracted to Marxism and even Marxism-Leninism-Mao Zedong Thought, the influence of the Left is visibly on the wane in the urban centres. What accelerated the disenchantment with the Left was the high-handedness of the West Bengal government in grabbing farm land in Singur for an industrial project and in trying to acquire it in Nandigram with the help of a colonial-era law. The sight of motorcycle-borne armed Marxist militia "invading" Nandigram while the police stayed away convinced the generally Left-inclined intelligentsia in West Bengal and elsewhere that the Buddhadev Bhattacharjee administration was no different in the matter of unleashing goons and emasculating the police than the Narendra Modi government.”

The present year may well write the epitaph, therefore, for the Left movement in India. Although the Communists were always a marginal force with hardly any presence outside West Bengal, Kerala and Tripura, they wielded an influence disproportionate to their actual strength because of their supposedly superior ideology compared to "bourgeois" capitalism and claims to stand for the poor. Now, with the demolition of these myths with Bhattacharjee wooing the private sector, the future of the commissars does not seem all that bright.
Kalyani Shankar agrees to this extent, “The weakened Left parties are getting ready to face the 2011 polls in West Bengal and Kerala. The CPI-M is the worst hit with the onslaught of Trinamool Congress. In Kerala the Chief Minister and the state unit president do not see eye to eye. In West Bengal the party has to decide whether Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharya will lead in 2011. Left unity also needs to be forged as the four left parties are not on the same wavelength on many issues.”
Similarly the Indian politics will never be same with the BJP going through existential crisis.
Amulya Ganguly says, “Like the left, the BJP has problems with its ideology. After two successive defeats in 2004 and 2009, there are misgivings about whether Hindutva is attracting a sufficient number of Hindus. Among those who questioned its efficacy was Jaswant Singh, a newly-elected MP but he was expelled for writing a book on Jinnah and the partition where he blamed the BJP's icon, Vallabbhai Patel, as well as Jawaharlal Nehru for the country's division along with the founder of Pakistan.”
According to him,” Another front-ranking leader of the party, Arun Jaitley, may not have doubted the value of Hindutva, but argued that its propagation as well as the party's general attitude should be less "shrill". Yet, no one has been more shrill in recent months than the paterfamilias of the saffron brotherhood, Mohan Bhagwat of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS). He has been arguing for undoing partition and uniting not only the subcontinent, but also including Afghanistan, Nepal, Bhutan and Sri Lanka in an Akhand Bharat on the basis of Hindu culture.

It goes without saying that these political bombshells, which include a refusal to apologize for the Babri masjid demolition, will plunge the BJP into greater difficulties than it is in at present. As it is, its partners like the Janata Dal-United (JD-U) has advised it to shun fomenting religious sentiments while talking about the Liberhan report on the Babri demolition in parliament and outside. If the RSS chief continues to talk in the present vein, the JD-U may well go the way of the Biju Janata Dal and Trinamool Congress, which left the BJP's company before the general elections.

The change of guard represented by the replacement of Rajnath Singh as the BJP president by the virtually unknown Nitin Gadkari is unlikely to help the party since the latter is seen to be the choice of the RSS. As a result, the party is expected to be even more under the thumb of Mohan Bhagwat than before. It is difficult to see the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) forging ahead under these circumstances.

Given the problems faced by the Left and the BJP, the Congress was fairly comfortably placed till it shot itself in the foot by hastily conceding the demand for Telangana without considering all the pros and cons. Although it is desperately trying to extricate itself by adopting the familiar tactics of delaying taking a decision - as P.N. Narasimha Rao used to do - it is unclear whether this ploy will succeed.”




Indian IT industries not only survived Obama’s rhetoric but also flourished as fast as ever.
Diplomatically, a contentious India-Pakistan joint statement at Sharm-el-Sheikh and a deepening chill in bilateral ties, strains in Sino-Indian relations, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's visit to the US as the first state guest of the Obama White House are some defining diplomatic moments of 2009:
Asia's longest-running insurgency ended with the defeat of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) by Sri Lankan troops in May, triggering loud rejoicing in Colombo and concern in New Delhi about the plight of nearly 300,000 displaced Tamil civilians living in crowded refugee camps.

Sri Lanka promised to resettle the refugees within six months, but as the year ends that deadline looks set to be extended by a couple of months.

Interacting with students, businessmen, talking green and dancing with women activists, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton went on a charm offensive during her five-day visit to India (July 17-20) and announced the first state dinner by the Obama White House in honour of Manmohan Singh Nov 24.

The two sides finalised a crucial end user defence monitoring agreement that allows the US to inspect high-tech weaponry sold to India.

: In times of recession, India, backed by its relatively resilient economy, pitched for the inclusion of emerging economies in international financial institutions at the G20 summits in London in April and Pittsburgh in September, the first summit of BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) in Yekaterinburg in June and again at the G8 summit in La Aquila.

India's economist prime minister's interventions in the global fora signalled the country's surging confidence and global stature.

Marking the first summit contact between the two leaders since the Nov 26, 2008, Mumbai attacks, Manmohan Singh met Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari June 16 in the Russian city of Yekaterinburg. With the cameras zooming and microphones blaring, Manmohan Singh told Zardari bluntly that Pakistani territory can't be used for anti-India terror activities.

In a much-misunderstood move, after holding talks with his Pakistani counterpart Yousaf Raza Gilani July 16 in the Egyptian resort, Manmohan Singh agreed to delink composite dialogue from Pakistan's action against terror and decided to include Balochistan in the Sharm el-Sheikh declaration, the first-such reference in an India-Pakistan joint statement.

There was jubilation in Pakistan at perceived Indian concessions and consternation in India as the political opposition accused the government of surrendering vital national interests. The strong domestic reaction led to a hardening of India's stand and with Pakistan doing little to address its concerns, the chill has deepened.

Under a glowing white tent with a glass ceiling and chandeliers, US President Barack Obama Nov 24 toasted Manmohan Singh on the lawns of the White House at the first glitzy state dinner of his presidency, marking the "great and growing friendship" between India and the US.

The two sides set out an ambitious agenda of "global strategic partnership for a better world" and signed six pacts, including a key counter-terrorism initiative, and agreed to complete their nuclear deal at the earliest, taking ties to what Hillary Clinton has called "Phase III."

India and Russia Dec 7 signed a landmark nuclear deal, widely rated as better than the India-US 123 agreement, assuring fuel supply guarantees in the event of New Delhi conducting a nuclear test and a consent to reprocess spent fuel. The two countries also finalised the price of aircraft carrier Admiral Gorshkov, removing an irritant in their ties.

The dragon hissed, but the elephant did not panic. Fed by media reports of increasing Chinese incursions and an unsigned article by a Chinese analyst warning of a plan to split India into 30-40 states, China-bashing became a sport in Indian media and strategic circles.

China opposed an Indian loan proposal at the Asian Development Bank and protested Tibetan leader Dalai Lama's visit to Arunachal Pradesh, over which Beijing claims sovereignty. But India refused to buckle.

Although both sides tried assiduously to downplay strains in their ties, Manmohan Singh partially admitted it when he told a US think tank in Washington that he had taken note of "certain assertiveness" on the part of China.

More than a year after the July 7, 2008, attack, the Indian embassy was again the target of a suicide bomber Oct 8, 2009. Although no one was killed, the incident once again underlined the hostility India faces from Pakistan-based Taliban militia as it continues the reconstruction of Afghanistan for which it has already pledged $1.2 billion. India has reacted cautiously to Obama's new AfPak policy.

When the global climate deal was on the verge of collapse, India, along with China, Brazil and South Africa, emerged as a link between the developed and developing world and played the saviour in striking a compromise accord at Copenhagen.

In a last-ditch effort, US President Barack Obama held talks with the leaders of the four countries to rescue the tottering deal. Manmohan Singh asked the world not to abandon the Kyoto Protocol and made it clear that the interests of the poor in developing countries can't be sacrificed at the altar of a global warming deal.

Most significantly, the rise in importance of the G20 underscores the critical role played by the key emerging economies such as China, India and Brazil in helping big industrialised states such as the US and Europe counter the fallout from the recession.

When Japan asked India to sign CTBT on last days of 2009, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said, “let US, China sign the CTBT first”. The message was not lost on the Japanese premier.
The two sides signed agreements to build eco-friendly cities along the Rs.3.6 lakh crore ($72 billion) Delhi-Mumbai industrial corridor, setting the tone for talks between Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and his Japanese counterpart Yukio Hatoyama.


India packs power softly. Booker prize winner to Aravind, Nobel Prize to Venkatraman Ramakrishnan in chemistry, Oscar award to Slum Dog Millionaire, Grammy award to tabla maestro Zakir Hussain for the album global drum …the list is endless. A survey by forbes said that Indian immigrants in US are head-and-shoulders above the rest.
Seventy-seven years after playing their first Test, India realised its ultimate dream of becoming the numero uno in Test cricket and in the process celebrated their 100th Test win beating Sri Lanka at home. The feat came in a year when terror hit cricket on the subcontinent. Sachin Tendulkar's brilliance continued to captivate the cricketing world even 20 years after he stepped into the international scene in 1989. He also crossed the milestone of 17,000 ODI runs with a masterful 175 against Australia in Hyderabad, Nov 5, rolling back the years. However, India's performance in ODIs and Twenty20 dipped. Their early exit from the Champions Trophy and Twenty20 World Cup - Mahendra Singh Dhoni's boys were the defending champions - drew a lot of flak.

For the diehard Indian fan though, most rewarding was the tag of World No.1 in Tests. In the last 14 months, India have not lost a single Test and won the series against Australia, England, New Zealand and Sri Lanka. In April, India won a Test series in New Zealand after 41 years.

The stand-out performance came from Gautam Gambhir for the second successive year. Gambhir, who won the International Cricket Council's (ICC) Test player of the year award, started from where he left off, knocking four successive Test centuries, each producing a flavour of its own either to win or save a Test.


If the country is facing any long-term problem apart from Islamic terrorism, it is from the Maoist insurgency, which the prime minister described as the country's gravest internal security threat. However, there are signs that action plans have been prepared by the home ministry to confront the Maoists in their "red corridor" and eradicate the menace with the help of specially-trained and well-equipped paramilitary forces.

If the government succeeds in this endeavour, it will be a major plus factor in its favour. In the economic field too, the situation is improving with a steadily rising growth rate. As if to confirm that the scene is far from depressing, India attained the No.1 status among the Test cricket playing nations in the last month of the year.
Another serious problem is inflating food prices. While the mobiles are cheaper, the food has become dearer. Mobiles can’t be substitute for food. So the government has a serious problem at hand here and unfortunately the government is seen as part of the problem.
Technology in the second decade of this millennium will build on the foundation laid in the first 10 years for mobility, cloud computing and green technology that saw the birth of the iconic iPhone, third generation telephony, notebooks, netbooks and the iPod with a camera.
Finally, India goes 3G. If the auction happens before February as planned, it ends a forgettable episode in Indian telecom, 11 years after 3G's birth. If you ignore the 3G services of state-run firms -- both amazing failures -- then 3G should be on our phones by end-2010. The iPhone, too, will rise with 3G. With under five percent global share, the iPhone accounts for half the world's mobile data traffic.
Only five percent of India's 500 million mobiles are data-enabled smart-phones. That's changing. Of the 10-15 million phones selling each month, a tenth are smart-phones, supporting data and a memory card. Starting 2010, the decade will see an explosion of mobile data applications.

Four-fifth of personal computers in India are desktops, versus two-third globally. That's changing, too. Annual laptop sales are now nearly a third of total personal computer sales. Laptops and now netbooks have the edge in power-starved India. Now, with Rs.15,000-netbooks and power-packed laptops at Rs.30,000, there's little reason to buy desktop computers. While desktops will still log high sales, thanks to large business and government buyers, laptops and netbooks should match their numbers in 2011, saving, by the way, 100 MW of electricity. Up ahead in 2010: the smart-book, a smart-phone-netbook crossover, that will run a full day on a battery charge.
Services delivered over the internet already serve the public at large with Webmail, photo sharing and web services. The cloud is evolving into a simple, pay-per-use way to get services on tap, just like electricity, for businesses. A billion mobile and desktop devices will tap into the cloud. The cloud is also the greenest way to go. Organisations don't need to set up server banks running lots of software. Just pay for what you use. The provider services many users from one set of equipment, halving energy and equipment cost per user.
Environment-friendly features are finally getting into office buildings. House-owners are using power-saving techniques, such as high-albedo reflective paint, which drops rooftop temperature 20 degrees, CFL lamps, and natural light. A ramp-up of solar heating, motion sensors, and LED lights will be seen in 2010. Newer housing projects will be built with green features such as double-glazed glass for natural light, VRF air-conditioning, water harvesting and recycling. The need for saving power will be driven by high cost of backup power, a necessary evil in power-starved India.

The biggest impact on green tech and energy efficiency will come not from electronics and hardware but from smarter software -- software that controls electrical grid, uses sensors data to smartly control building lighting and cooling, improves efficiency of car engines, or runs power management for computer networks. It's software that will really rule 2010's clean tech.
(With Agency Inputs)